BTW, Norwescon attendees

I know it's stupid early, but those of you going to Norwescon next year for sure might want to go ahead and reserve your rooms. (You can do that here, at the Hotels page of the Norwescon website with a credit card.) We're through half our room block already (as of a few days ago) and they already had to expand the Wednesday block so more concom members could register. (Don't worry, we're not almost out of rooms on any day regular attendees might care about. Just half out, which is bad enough.)

I dunno what's going on, but people are reserving rooms crazy early this time, which kind of continues a trend started last year when the hotel was booked up by late December. So now you know. ^_^

Housing bailout bill

Okay, so there's this "housing bailout" bill (HR 3221) that's pretty much a Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae bailout bill. It gives Treasury Secretary Paulson only very loosely limited access to US debt instruments to bail out these two government-chartered but privately-held housing-finance corporations. I've linked to articles talking about why this is a bad idea before. The House passed it last night; it goes now to the Senate.

One of the reasons this is bad is that the stated ideas about how much value loss the housing credit crisis includes still do not reflect reality. They still assume that housing prices can be stabilised at historically high levels, which is not going to happen. I'm sorry; it's just not. The real losses are now starting to be acknowledged as being around US$1.5T. This bill essentially allows Mr. Paulson to cover these losses with government money, which is to say, taxpayer funds.

Now, the US government debt ceiling will limit that (unless raised again) to US$800B or so. But no matter how you cut it, that's an absolute assload of new government debt - which means new government borrowing, or created money - and in a pretty short period of time.

Here are the questions you need to ask:

What's that going to do to the US dollar? And what's that going to do to the cost of US government borrowing? And what's that going to do to the cost of financing the current very large government debt? And what's that going to do to the size of that debt, once you add in the new, higher interest rates generated?

I suppose you could also ask, "Do I want to pay to bail out these bondholders?"

The bond market already appears not to like this discussion. The 10 year bond has added 359 basis points to bond interest rates since Mr. Paulson said it should happen a week ago. (C.f. chart here.) This could be real. Or... might not be. I suspect that if it passes, we'll get another short-term stock rally, which will make everyone feel better - at first.

Look, I understand the urge to Do Something. I have my own ideas about what should be done. (I was arguing for the Short Sharp Shock some, what, 18 months ago?) And I'm not at all as confident about this as I am most things I go public about, but the time factor makes taking my best guess and hoping it's the right one kinda mandatory. I could be wrong about what should be done; I could be wrong about the fallout from this. I would say the odds of being wrong are higher than usual, because there are simply too many unknowns.

Or, on the other hand, the Senate could be passing Smoot-Hawley for a New Generation later this afternoon or tomorrow.

Do what you think you need to.

Yes, yes, Rocky Horror remake

Okay, look, there's pretty much exactly one way wherein the whole Rocky Horror Picture Show remake idea gets interesting: an all-Scientology cast. Honestly. Okay, maybe not honestly, but I think the idea has a couple of lulz. What's your cast? Personally, I'd nominate:

John Travolta as Dr. Frank-N-Furter. Sure, sure, it's easy, but the decay will make him terrifying, and he's got experience in drag. Also, he's played a transvestite in film. (I know, I know, too easy...)
Katie Holmes as Janet Weiss, largely because of the seasoning brought by the off-screen freakshow drama with...
Tom Cruise's Super-Ego as Brad Majors. Small, ineffective, and desperately overcompensating. Tell me I'm wrong. I dare you. But that's not all! We have...
Tom Cruise's Id as Rocky Horror. (Yes, yes, I know, double-casting. But he's an OT, right? He should be capable! And c'mon, picture him prancing around in those mouldy goldies. Weeks of nightmares.)
Cartoon Xenu, voiced by Nancy Cartwright, as Riff Raff. Villain... or hero?
Kirstie Alley as Magenta. She's played aliens with weird sex drives, and besides, she has that crazed look you need.
Lisa Marie-Presley as Columbia. Aheh.
Isaac Hayes as The Criminologist. Picture him saying "Heavy. Dark. and Pendulous," and I think you'll be sold.
Beck as Beck, playing Eddie. No, he can't act, but so what?
The Re-animated Corpse of L. Ron Hubbard as Dr. Everett von Scott (A Rival Scientist), because you just have to. Finally, in cameo roles:
Giovanni Ribisi as Ralph Hapschatt, because somebody has to do it, and
Greta Van Susteren as Betty Munroe Hapschatt, because who better than a Fox News troll to play a woman subverting her identity to a complete jackass?

Amy Heckerling directs. We tell them it's a metacommentary on The Church of Scientology vs. Psychology, but really, well, with any luck at all, they'd set the location on fire and burn the whole place down around themselves. Or, well, so I can dream.

hard on picks

I'm kinda hard on picks.


Hard on picks

This one failed mid-song. I finished the song with it torn in half.


Finished the Song Anyway

kitties!

Oh So Lazy