Get a bus pass

[solarbird]

Cascadians better buckle seatbelts - or better yet, buy a bus pass - because here's where the Alaskan oil goes (courtesy The Oil Drum):

Puget Sound: 419,521 barrels/day (42% of pipeline total)
San Francisco 123,870 barrels/day
Los Angeles 333,006 barrels/day
Hawaii 42,682 barrels/day
Exports 78,763 barrels/day
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue.

If this has any duration - and it's still early but apparently the pipeline corrosion is more widespread and worse than initially thought, there's a hypothesis floating about out there that lower flow rates increases bacterial corrosion opportunities - then, well - it won't be good. If it isn't clear: this is the majority of the oil we use in the Puget Sound region.

Tankers and such are going to be re-routed, but that adds time and cost. Expect expensive gasoline and heating oil all autumn.

More on this later, of course. Always recently with the later, I am. Foo.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

Luckily, few people in this area heat with oil, so the impact there should be minimal. Local gas prices seem certain to spike, though.

Also, glossed over is the fact that Prudhoe Bay's production is down significantly over the last several years. "Low flow rates" mean significantly less production. Eight years ago, there was only minimal corrosion when they checked the same pipeline, possibly because flow rates were much higher then. This suggests that Prudhoe Bay is now significantly on the downside of the production curve. Some pessimists suggest that if the corrosion is bad enough the pipeline might not be reopened at all. Right now that seems alarmist, and the lack of panic in the oil markets agrees. But imagine the permanent loss of 400,000 barrels a day.

[llachglin.livejournal.com]

Damn it, if you screen an anonymous post about this, it's mine. LJ keeps logging me out lately, and I forget to check that I'm logged in when replying.

[solarbird]

I've set it visible. And yes, the article I reference above talks about all those issues. People may wish to read it if they want more details.

Prudhoe Bay has been in decline for several years. But in a decline environment, these supplies still matter quite a bit. The pipeline will be reopened, or at least, some form of transportation accomodation will be made.

[cow.livejournal.com]

Filled the tank last night (it was still $2.93 in Greenwood) and am now just leaving the car at home unless necessary. I mean, I tend to do that anyway, but whee, this could get fun.

[banner.livejournal.com]

I'm really wondering what the heck happened with that pipeline. I've worked on a pipeline in the past and they have special devices all along the line that provides a current to keep it from corroding. They do this on -all- pipelines, even the gas pipe that runs to your house! Everyone knows about this, and they inspect those devices regularly.

So what happened here? Why weren't those devices working? Something isn't right here, or we're not being told the whole story.

[solarbird]

They're reporting sulpher-philic bacteria as the major cause. The hypothesis right now is that the concentrations went up more asymtopically than linerally, and the preventive measures weren't adequate for the rate increase.

OTOH, the company running this line has had issues in the recent past, so they may well have really fucked things up and are trying to cover for it. Presumably we'll find out more over the next few weeks.

[banner.livejournal.com]

You know, if the EPA would just let us switch our cars over to LNG whenever we wanted to, none of this would be an issue. But apparently the EPA has outlawed this in the USA (with new cars).

[solarbird]

A BBC reporter was talking to a Shell rep last night and hitting them pretty hard on maintenance issues, and the BP rep was all, "We did what we were required to do," and they were all, "Yes, but you used to do quite a bit more, the code is the minimum" and so on. So yeah, they may have cut back on monitoring and possibly maintenance a bit. That wouldn't have prevented the bacterial growth rate spike, but they'd have detected it a big earlier, I'd think.

Oh well, sucks to be us. It's only .6% of world production. We'll notice, but the rest of you probably won't - not even in LA. It'll get lost in the noise unless something else happens.