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yes, this needs to be taken seriously
Mar. 11th, 2020 01:37 pmI wrote this up for my neighbourhood association's board of directors, because they were still talking about the easter egg hunt and potluck and such, and they really need not to. So here it is for you, too.
(Easter Egg and Potluck have been cancelled. They're still talking about a May event. I'm trying to get them to understand this won't be over in May.)
You have to understand. As of a couple of days ago (last hard numbers I saw), 5% of known cases in Italy have been fatal, in part because the health care system is overwhelmed. We have to avoid that. I'm not an virologist or even an MD, but I was involved in research science for a little while, and I was in fact published (in genetics, if you're wondering), and I kinda have a grip on population numbers, so let me try to explain what's going on.
The best case death rate from COVID-19 with a decently large population sample, at the moment, is South Korea. There, it has a 0.6% fatality rate. This is in large part due to their extraordinary response, particularly in testing programmes. They've done a great job so far.
The US is not doing that well. Just isn't. But let's go with that number for a moment, since Washington State is actively trying to get there. Hopefully, we'll succeed.
The current projected population infection rate is a wide range, from 40% to 70% of people eventually getting the infection. This is based on models of basically every other epidemic that's acted anything like this. 40% is the lowest projected infection rate.
Given the South Korean death rate, and a low-end 40% eventual population infection rate, that means nationally 791,924 people dead from COVID-19.
(Number: 329,227,746 current US population, estimate, US Census Bureau. 40% of that is 131,691,098. 0.6% of that is 791,924.)
That's around eight hundred thousand people, assuming the lowest range of current population group fatality rates, and assuming the health care system never gets overwhelmed.
The high end of the projected population infection range is 70%. That would be 1,385,867 dead, across the US. Almost 1.4 million people.
That's if the health system could keep up, which it can't. That's what everyone needs to try to prevent, because so far, not keeping up doubles the death rate. At least.
(It also affects the death rates of everyone else needing hospitalisation, since they're competing for the same resources. A lot more of them will die, too. But I'm not including those cases in these numbers.)
If we use the larger Wuhan numbers, it's 2.3% fatal. That ups the death toll nationally to a range between 3.0 and 5.3 million.
If things get really out of hand and we get Italy's latest fatality rate numbers? Their numbers are, by the way, about right for what would've happened in Wuhan if the health system hadn't kept up, so think of it as a precautionary tale. If we use Italy's rate?
Between 6.5 and 11.5 million dead, depending upon final infection rate.
This is very, very serious.
It doesn't have to turn into Italy. It doesn't even have to turn into Wuhan.
But if it's not taken seriously - if we don't actively work to prevent this - it will.
More on triage medicine in Italy, here:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
(Easter Egg and Potluck have been cancelled. They're still talking about a May event. I'm trying to get them to understand this won't be over in May.)
You have to understand. As of a couple of days ago (last hard numbers I saw), 5% of known cases in Italy have been fatal, in part because the health care system is overwhelmed. We have to avoid that. I'm not an virologist or even an MD, but I was involved in research science for a little while, and I was in fact published (in genetics, if you're wondering), and I kinda have a grip on population numbers, so let me try to explain what's going on.
The best case death rate from COVID-19 with a decently large population sample, at the moment, is South Korea. There, it has a 0.6% fatality rate. This is in large part due to their extraordinary response, particularly in testing programmes. They've done a great job so far.
The US is not doing that well. Just isn't. But let's go with that number for a moment, since Washington State is actively trying to get there. Hopefully, we'll succeed.
The current projected population infection rate is a wide range, from 40% to 70% of people eventually getting the infection. This is based on models of basically every other epidemic that's acted anything like this. 40% is the lowest projected infection rate.
Given the South Korean death rate, and a low-end 40% eventual population infection rate, that means nationally 791,924 people dead from COVID-19.
(Number: 329,227,746 current US population, estimate, US Census Bureau. 40% of that is 131,691,098. 0.6% of that is 791,924.)
That's around eight hundred thousand people, assuming the lowest range of current population group fatality rates, and assuming the health care system never gets overwhelmed.
The high end of the projected population infection range is 70%. That would be 1,385,867 dead, across the US. Almost 1.4 million people.
That's if the health system could keep up, which it can't. That's what everyone needs to try to prevent, because so far, not keeping up doubles the death rate. At least.
(It also affects the death rates of everyone else needing hospitalisation, since they're competing for the same resources. A lot more of them will die, too. But I'm not including those cases in these numbers.)
If we use the larger Wuhan numbers, it's 2.3% fatal. That ups the death toll nationally to a range between 3.0 and 5.3 million.
If things get really out of hand and we get Italy's latest fatality rate numbers? Their numbers are, by the way, about right for what would've happened in Wuhan if the health system hadn't kept up, so think of it as a precautionary tale. If we use Italy's rate?
Between 6.5 and 11.5 million dead, depending upon final infection rate.
This is very, very serious.
It doesn't have to turn into Italy. It doesn't even have to turn into Wuhan.
But if it's not taken seriously - if we don't actively work to prevent this - it will.
More on triage medicine in Italy, here:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
