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Newsmax yanked the John L. Perry article calling for a coup d'etat against Mr. Obama. However, Talking Points Memo still has the full text online. I also have a webarchive record, in zip format, if you want the original full article in its full glory. (I expected it would get yanked.) Please to enjoy, or not.
Sep. 30th, 2009
On the dollar
Sep. 30th, 2009 11:47 amGood morning, Cascadia; good afternoon, points east.
I don't usually link to video, but this thesis laid out by Jim Rickards, Director of Market Intelligence for Omnis, a "scientific consulting firm" (says CNBC), on recent Fed commentary on interest rates - saying that they'll need to hike quickly when they hike and the decision will probably be based on nontraditional metrics - is interesting. Mr. Rickards says it's about managing the transition of the US dollar away from a global reserve currency and maintaining an orderly decline.
Also, you're seeing a lot of charts like this:
USD/CAD with 20/50/100wma
If the USD 20-week ma breaks the 100 week ma as decisively as it broke the 50-week, you're looking at a substantial move down, historically speaking. Really, the USD has fallen sharply over the last few months against everything; the Can$ is no exception. Yen charts aren't that much different, for example. The dollar is down a bit today, but is not in any screaming hurry. Oil is up, like you'd expect. So's gold, she said, with qualms.
Have a bunch of data - the economic calendar is busy this week:
Second-quarter (May-July) economic decline was revised up a bit, against expectations, to 0.7%. That's good, and stocks are higher on it. It's also a backward-looking indicator. More frontward-looking indicators include an entirely unexpected sharp decline in the Chicago PMI, back into recession territory. Mish has commentary here, Karl takes the topline numbers here. Inventories are up, which is normally good, but deliveries are down, which makes that actually kind of bad, and even the bad number artificially high. (But artificially high in a normal, non-manipulation way. This happens at inflection points.)
The ADP job report - a precursor to the official job report, measured differently by different people with different numbers - came out today, showing the private sector shed another 254,000 jobs last month. Marketwatch spins it as good, and noting it was better than last month, which showed "a revised 277,000 jobs... lost compared with the 298,000 originally reported." (And compare nonrevised to nonrevised, of course.) What they don't note, however, Bloomberg does: this 254,000 was much worse than consensus expectation of 200,000.
Second-quarter housing loan nonperformance-rates were really, really bad, as in worse in every category than any quarter in this recession, and reversing the improvements seen in first quarter. There's been a temporary lull in foreclosures (as previously mentioned). It's also important to note that over 50% of "rescued" mortgages - a small number to begin with - are already back in default. Longer-term numbers are worse, of course.
Here's one of the curious components of the stock rally: despite unemployment, slumping sales, and everything else we know, retail apparel stocks are back to pre-crash levels. Neat, huh?
I don't usually link to video, but this thesis laid out by Jim Rickards, Director of Market Intelligence for Omnis, a "scientific consulting firm" (says CNBC), on recent Fed commentary on interest rates - saying that they'll need to hike quickly when they hike and the decision will probably be based on nontraditional metrics - is interesting. Mr. Rickards says it's about managing the transition of the US dollar away from a global reserve currency and maintaining an orderly decline.
Also, you're seeing a lot of charts like this:
USD/CAD with 20/50/100wma
If the USD 20-week ma breaks the 100 week ma as decisively as it broke the 50-week, you're looking at a substantial move down, historically speaking. Really, the USD has fallen sharply over the last few months against everything; the Can$ is no exception. Yen charts aren't that much different, for example. The dollar is down a bit today, but is not in any screaming hurry. Oil is up, like you'd expect. So's gold, she said, with qualms.
Have a bunch of data - the economic calendar is busy this week:
Second-quarter (May-July) economic decline was revised up a bit, against expectations, to 0.7%. That's good, and stocks are higher on it. It's also a backward-looking indicator. More frontward-looking indicators include an entirely unexpected sharp decline in the Chicago PMI, back into recession territory. Mish has commentary here, Karl takes the topline numbers here. Inventories are up, which is normally good, but deliveries are down, which makes that actually kind of bad, and even the bad number artificially high. (But artificially high in a normal, non-manipulation way. This happens at inflection points.)
The ADP job report - a precursor to the official job report, measured differently by different people with different numbers - came out today, showing the private sector shed another 254,000 jobs last month. Marketwatch spins it as good, and noting it was better than last month, which showed "a revised 277,000 jobs... lost compared with the 298,000 originally reported." (And compare nonrevised to nonrevised, of course.) What they don't note, however, Bloomberg does: this 254,000 was much worse than consensus expectation of 200,000.
Second-quarter housing loan nonperformance-rates were really, really bad, as in worse in every category than any quarter in this recession, and reversing the improvements seen in first quarter. There's been a temporary lull in foreclosures (as previously mentioned). It's also important to note that over 50% of "rescued" mortgages - a small number to begin with - are already back in default. Longer-term numbers are worse, of course.
Here's one of the curious components of the stock rally: despite unemployment, slumping sales, and everything else we know, retail apparel stocks are back to pre-crash levels. Neat, huh?
And in the unlikely event you missed it
Sep. 30th, 2009 01:45 pmIn case you missed it, Chief Executive Obama has completed the adoption of Mr. Bush's policies on arbitrary arrest and indefinite detention, deciding not to seek law supporting it. Like Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama claims the power to arrest anyone, anywhere, without cause or warrant, and with no right to appeal or judicial process, if, in the sole purview of the Executive branch, it and/or he decide it's appropriate for national security.* Like Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama claims this authority under the post-September 11 authorisation of force. Unlike Mr. Bush, Mr. Obama is not yet claiming these powers are inherent in statements, tho' iirc his legal team has danced towards that in court.
Mind you, Congress is so quick and so willing to create and hand over arbitrary and unconstitutional powers to the executive that Glenn Greenwald thinks this is better than letting them go at it. I'd like to think there's room to disagree, but I doubt there is.
see also, see also, see also, see also, see also.
*: According to some reports, this power is to be used sparingly, and mostly towards only those already held, but this is purely a matter of policy and not of claim of law. C.f. previous commentaries on political power theory.
Mind you, Congress is so quick and so willing to create and hand over arbitrary and unconstitutional powers to the executive that Glenn Greenwald thinks this is better than letting them go at it. I'd like to think there's room to disagree, but I doubt there is.
see also, see also, see also, see also, see also.
*: According to some reports, this power is to be used sparingly, and mostly towards only those already held, but this is purely a matter of policy and not of claim of law. C.f. previous commentaries on political power theory.
