I actually have two journals here

So another blog type analysis toy is going around, like it does, and I ran it against my LJ, and got:

INTP - The Thinkers

The logical and analytical type. They are especialy attuned to difficult creative and intellectual challenges and always look for something more complex to dig into. They are great at finding subtle connections between things and imagine far-reaching implications.

They enjoy working with complex things using a lot of concepts and imaginative models of reality. Since they are not very good at seeing and understanding the needs of other people, they might come across as arrogant, impatient and insensitive to people that need some time to understand what they are talking about.

...which wasn't really too surprising, but then I realised that my front page had an unusually high concentration - yes, even for me - of economics, so I wondered what'd happen if I took out economics via the magic of tags, and if you take away econ and/or politics, everything else is:

ESFP - The Performers

The entertaining and friendly type. They are especially attuned to pleasure and beauty and like to fill their surroundings with soft fabrics, bright colors and sweet smells. They live in the present moment and don't like to plan ahead - they are always in risk of exhausting themselves.

The enjoy work that makes them able to help other people in a concrete and visible way. They tend to avoid conflicts and rarely initiate confrontation - qualities that can make it hard for them in management positions.

Pretty much everything else brings up that analysis. Filtering into subsets, I expected it when posting about music and photography, and wasn't too surprised about Japan and travel, but posting about home repair? Performer. Posting about Anna's medical stuff? Still Performer. In fact, the only cleanly isolatable subslices of any note that got anything else were postings about the murknet and postings under the "rampaging idocy" tag,^* and those are kind of weird ones anyway.

So I apparently have two markedly different styled journals here, interleaved together. It's not a matter of whether I like the topic, either; I hate the culture war/political work, but I enjoy writing about the economics. Similarly, I obviously love the music and like the photography and similar topics, but hate the house-remodelling and really hate the medical stuff a lot. But those are all still Performer. So there's that for you. Or me. Or somebody.

---

^*: Tag "murknet": "ESTP-The Doers: The Doers are happiest with action-filled work which craves their full attention and focus..."). Tag "rampaging idocy": "ISFP - The Artists: The gentle and compassionate type. They are especially attuned their inner values and what other people need. They are not friends of many words and tend to take the worries of the world on their shoulders." The not-well-isolating tag "writings" gets me "ISTP - The Mechanics: The independent and problem-solving type. They are especially attuned to the demands of the moment are masters of responding to challenges that arise spontaneously. They generelly prefer to think things out for themselves and often avoid interpersonal conflicts" but if you look at it, those are mostly econ and politics (triggering Thinker) alloyed by a few writings on non-econ/politics posts (triggering Performer) and the result is a hybrid of two otherwise well-defined/well-isolated oh nobody's reading this far down anyway.

The American lost decade

Good afternoon.

The S&P 500 - the broadest of the American stock indices - cleared its 2002 lows today, which is to say, fell below the lowest point it reached during the 2001-2003 bear market. We are now, at least for the moment, back to mid-1997 levels in that index, and this is officially the worst year in the history of the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 has lost 52% of its value from peak. (SPX today -54.14, -6.7%).

The Dow Jones Industrial Index (down 5.6%) has not yet cleared its 2002 lows, but closed the day sitting on support virtually identical to the Cloud City antenna I mentioned in the previous update, and you see how well that held up. The NASDAQ, down only 5.1%, has a little more pad than that before it breaks south of 2002.

The US has already lost a decade, and the first phase of this isn't over yet. RGE Monitor notes (unlinkably, which annoys me), "...Nouriel Roubini expects a doubling to $2 trillion writedowns with according capital raising requirements as house prices have to fall another 15-20%... we're only half-way through." But the second phase is already ramping up, as unemployment claims are soaring. Nicholas Bloom at RGE Monitor thinks 2009 will be a "nightmare on main street" but that recovery is possible in 2010 - if intervention doesn't choke markets. Otherwise it will extend longer.

All that said, I'd think you'd have to have a snapback rally at some point very soon, just because of the general nature of the market. Too bad that's not bankable.

Bloomberg is announcing that the H.4 report from the Fed ("Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks") due out today is delayed. Indefinitely. (No link, sorry.) Freddie Mac is suspending all foreclosure sales of occupied homes until January 9, 2009. Marketwatch adds unlinkably that Fannie Mae is doing the same thing... oh wait, it's linkable now. It smells like something is going on here, but whatever it is, it's pretty opaque.

Mish has commentary on record-low treasury yields, and collapses in swap spreads. He also says that the Fed is out of room and that rates are already effectively at zero; I think they're effectively at .35, and yes, that's only the discount window, and all these other devices - trillions worth - are at zero, but the discount rate is the benchmark rate and does affect other things. Not that a third of a percent or so is going to have a huge impact.

You gotta be seriously brave or seriously stupid to try an IPO in this climate. But hey, if after a day like this you can be down only 15¢ a share from your initial offer, you're not doing too badly. They were one of the few stocks technically up today, as they opened at $10 ($2 below their offer) and rose to $11.85. In this climate, that's not bad.

In helpful news, oil continues to fall, closing at $49.62/barrel as economic activity augers in. Silver linings and all that. The Yen continues to soar against all currencies, somehow pulling the US dollar up with it. I still don't get that. It has to be T-bill purchases (with deficits at record highs) but c'mon.

And in crazy news, the Vatican says the current Pope had a vision of this in 1985. Yay?

Transplanted from elsewhere

smarier posted a poll about where the DJIA will end up. He had a set of ranges, starting with basically now, and going down to 4,000, and an option of "Say good bye to all your money."

I picked, "say good bye to all your money." because seriously, if these dicking-around bullshit hide-the-losses games keep happening, and there's every indication they're going to keep happening, one of two things will happen:

1) 80-90% loss from peak on the Dow Jones. That's not crazy; we're well more than halfway there already - roughly 63% there, to get specific about it - with about half of losses sorta-kinda stated, and with unemployment just starting to ramp up as we head into the real-economy takedown. That gives us a target of 3,000-1,500 (yes, that's the DJIA) in sight, and that's below his list. But that'll be in a deflationary environment, which means a lower actual number once we finally get there. I don't know how much lower. Or, we get;

2) Currency devaluation. A serious one, probably complete with good old fashioned printing. That's what I'm talking about when I say to keep an eye on the M1. In this case, none of these numbers mean anything, but you can say goodbye to all your money because it's not so much "goodbye to all your money" as "goodbye to your money," as in "goodbye to your currency," at which point all bets are off, all numbers are meaningless, possession is 98% of the law, and I hope you've got a good friends network with whom you can barter.

Now, we're not guaranteed either of these outcomes. This is not a promise. It will take some work to get there. But so far, this is where we're going. One can only hope that some sense of sanity can return soon to policy.

But even without that, the market is going to be very bad by historical numbers for some time. One of the things nobody has been willing to remember yet is that as of 2008 the demographic trend is against new net 401(k) money, even in a recovery. That market-goosing game - which has been substantial - is over for the next 20 years because of Boomer aging, retirement, and death. There's not going to be a return to the old market because the earning potential simply isn't there - at least, not on a summary scale. The amount of money going in is going to be balanced by money going out, no matter what the market does, so the old game is over. This doesn't mean there won't be money to be made in the market or it's going to crash to zero; but it does mean that this particular bias upwards is gone, and it's been substantial.

So, be aware, okay? And remember I'm not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice, and so on. But be aware.

And by the way, weird shit is going down in the bond market. TIPS are inflation-buffered/guaranteed Treasuries, and, "the breakeven spread on 10 year TIPS is about zero. The [credit] market is predicting no inflation for 10 years." The credit market is not perfect, but it's almost always right in the end, and if you bet against it, you'd better know something they don't.

They're gettin' a mite punch-drunk over at CNBC

"Prepare for the age of hobos; teach your kids how to grift."

— Jeff Macke, CBNC Fast Money, in response to a Louise Yamada appearance and her analysis that the next level down for the S&P 500 is between 400 and 600.

the alternate title was "mac and cheese"

Offering