skimming for news

[solarbird]

Good evening.

Stocks were up sharply today on a large jump up in the consumer confidence index. The index is as its highest point since just before the credit crisis of last autumn. A partial breakdown:

Those claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 8.7 percent from 7.9 percent. However, those claiming conditions are "bad" increased to 45.3 percent from 44.9 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the job market was also more favorable. Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 44.7 percent from 46.6 percent in April. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" edged up to 5.7 percent from 4.9 percent.

...and so on. Mish details why he thinks much of this is unwarranted hope. Only 19.7% of college graudates this year have managed as yet to find work.

Also, housing prices are still falling at record rates, with no hint of bottoming, much less turnaround, in the latest Case-Shiller numbers. And FYI, Credit Suisse has updated its important chart of mortgage loan reset/recasts. We're just entering the second large lump of mortgage resets now.

General Motors bondholders have rejected the latest debt-for-equity offer, essentially insuring - I am told - a bankruptcy akin to that of Chrysler.

Everyone is talking today about T-bills and the bond market. Henry Blodget discusses whether it's because of a nacient recovery - or because lenders think the US is really, really screwed. Across the Curve cites Central Bank interventionism. Seeking Alphia thinks that China is "now in firm control of US debt markets" and that China is mostly buying T-bills at this point in order to sell them for raw materials accumulation (note the large jumps in the Baltic Dry Index lately) - just as China is warning the US not to start up the printing presses. Naked Capitalism thinks holders of US debt are looking at a 50% haircut in real terms.

Brad Setzer sees parallels between the dollar and said central bank actions now and 2007.

Zero Hedge reports that S&P is going to downgrade most CMBS funds. That will do ugly things to commercial real estate.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the Russian economy imploded by 23% in just the first quarter. That's not annualised; that's that quarter. Boom! And Sir Richard Branson of Virgin Group describes the global economy as "fucked,", or, as the Times put it, "f****d."

All for now, this is all 'way too much typing. G'night!

Comments

[phillipalden.livejournal.com]

Governor "Arnold" has also been threatening people with HIV/AIDS over California's budget woes. Considering he's been threatening everyone from teachers to fire-fighters, I don't take it too seriously, (though the SF AIDS Foundation is taking it very seriously indeed.)

My state legislature is hopeless.

[solarbird]

It should be taken very seriously. You cannot spend money you do not have. Period, end of story, game over. The voters just rejected - overwhelmingly - a series of tax hikes. As a result, spending must be cut. The votes with their actions really demonstrated yet again that California voters want more than they're willing to pay for; the government has been obliging through bond issuance for general fund spending(!), which is frankly crazy. California voters will simply need to learn that you can't have it both ways.

[phillipalden.livejournal.com]

That is true. But the basic fact is that our legislature is too cowardly to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthiest in our state.

I am taking this seriously, and I'll be in Sacramento June 10th for the demonstration. I've also contacted my elected reps.