extremely briefly
Feb. 28th, 2009 03:28 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdEquities markets on Friday closed below critical support levels, but the VIX is still pretty low (by recent standards) and the market isn't hugely overbought. This is an unstable configuration at best. Worse, there was selling in long Treasury bonds even as the market fell below these levels. Karl is worried about Monday.
I'm worried about the bond market, but there's nothing new about that. Mr. Obama is clearly betting it can absorb a lot more borrowing. Well, either it can, or it can't, and if this passes, we're going to find out. Won't that be fun?
This commentary on "animal spirits" and the talk-it-up psychological necessity of stimulus meme includes the very necessary question, "Delusional thinking about credit risk got us into this mess, so now the only thing to get us out is more widespread and more doggedly institutionalized delusional thinking?" Obviously, I feel the incredulity. Reality will, repeat will, eventually bite your ass.
I had a lot of other things but haven't had an easy way to keep them organised while my laptop's hard drive is ever-so-slowly being replaced by Hitachi. Sorry; these will be sparse and small until then.
I'm worried about the bond market, but there's nothing new about that. Mr. Obama is clearly betting it can absorb a lot more borrowing. Well, either it can, or it can't, and if this passes, we're going to find out. Won't that be fun?
This commentary on "animal spirits" and the talk-it-up psychological necessity of stimulus meme includes the very necessary question, "Delusional thinking about credit risk got us into this mess, so now the only thing to get us out is more widespread and more doggedly institutionalized delusional thinking?" Obviously, I feel the incredulity. Reality will, repeat will, eventually bite your ass.
I had a lot of other things but haven't had an easy way to keep them organised while my laptop's hard drive is ever-so-slowly being replaced by Hitachi. Sorry; these will be sparse and small until then.
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no subject
Date: 2009-03-01 01:01 am (UTC)Some of your links, I must admit, are worrysome in the extreme. What is your own opinion...do you think the markets are going to drop on Monday like the proverbial stockbroker jumping out of a 10th story window?
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Date: 2009-03-01 01:59 am (UTC)I don't attempt to do market timing, and that's not just me dodging the question. The day-to-day and hour-to-hour changes - I guess you could call it picoeconomics and femtonomics, respectively ^_^ - are not really my thing. I don't have enough faith in technicals and I ... don't entirely trust my reads on market emotions with enough confidence most of the time. (So yeah: I'm just sitting this out, hiding out in bonds.)
All that said, I agree the possibility of something very unpleasant is there. The possibility has been there since this retest began, and when it started, I didn't really think we'd break down past the lows this time - I was thinking the real retest will be in the summer once the supposed 3Q recovery doesn't happen - but, well, here we are. So.
no subject
Date: 2009-03-01 08:52 am (UTC)As for the protest sign....looking at my 201(k), I can't say I'm unsympathetic. Although a lot of the stockbrokers are just working folks who are ALSO losing their jobs.
Sorry, that's the "on the one hand, on the other hand" view showing through, I know.
I'm not thinking so much of the picoeconomic and femtonomic views, though, as I am the general market trend. I credit technical analysis with strength on the virtue of the number of people that believe in it, and a sharp downward opening, if I'm not mistaken, will crash through what support levels remain...and it's a long way to the NEXT set.
And THAT, in turn, has its own ramifications elsewhere in the economic system. Not to mention what would become my 4.01(k). :)