solarbird: (sb-worldcon-cascadia)
[personal profile] solarbird
Did the Democrats just give the GOP 15-20* seats in the House this fall?

Popular opinion was overwhelmingly against this action. Calls were ranging between 100:1 against and 300:1 against, depending upon representative. House Republicans rebelled against the Bush administration and its 19% approval rating; Democrats continued to be enablers. GOP economic conservatives who fought against this now have a reason to vote Republican.

I'm not paranoid enough to wonder whether the whole thing was a setup from the beginning - even though with a plan so disconnected from reality you have to wonder - but I do have to wonder if the House GOP saw the public reaction and took an opportunity handed to them.

eta: see [livejournal.com profile] kevin_standlee's commentary here about interesting parliamentary action. I wondered about some of that too but didn't know what it meant.

*: I am, for the record, pulling the "15-20" number completely out of my ass.

Date: 2008-09-29 07:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] firni.livejournal.com
The Thomas server crashed, probably from all the people trying to find out how their rep voted.

Date: 2008-09-29 07:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] peakoilchaplain.livejournal.com
It occurred to me while listening to the Republican response that they might have had their failure script worked out in advance and that any speech that the speaker made was going to be labeled "partisan". Which would basically mean that the Democratic leadership fell into a trap by trusting the assertions of the Republican leadership that the votes would be delivered, when in fact, the Republicans knew that said votes weren't forthcoming.

Neat trick, getting the opposite party to vote for something wildly unpopular.

Date: 2008-09-29 09:04 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chipmunck.livejournal.com
I concider myself fairly unpolitical, as much as I want to be up on things. With that in mind...

Do you think that Congressional Republicans, being that they are currently separating themselves from unpopular President Bush (R) so they can pass something, yet make it look like they are not on Bush's shoulders? We are seeing this with Dino Rossi in Washington. He has taken action to say he is "GOP" to remove himself from the 'republican' word since it's so unpopular.
Bush = Republic, Bush = Failure So Republican = Failure. Hence If Republican run as fast away from anything Bush says.

Date: 2008-09-29 07:29 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] llachglin.livejournal.com
I don't think this will hurt Democrats. If they'd passed it and it failed, then maybe. If things get better (highly unlikely) no one will remember. If things get worse, the Democrats can credibly blame House Republicans. Some will and some won't, but it will be a wash either way.

Politically, it is impossible for anything to get done. What we need is a populist, social democratic response to this crisis. Anything that is even slightly more socially democratic will provoke even greater Republican opposition, though.

If nothing gets done, it will take a miracle to avoid Great Depression II. Let's hope that Obama has an inner FDR because if he doesn't we're totally fucked.

Date: 2008-09-29 08:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chipmunck.livejournal.com
What we need is a great big toilet in the Congress right now and flush everyone and thing down it and start over. ;)

It's amazing how much mud flinging there is no matter what the result. Congressional leaders/people seem to take any situation and find the ability of blaming the OTHER person. There goes any sort of personal responsibility.

Disenchanted over here. Sorry.

Date: 2008-09-29 09:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hubbit.livejournal.com
Well, yeah.

What we need is a bilateral legislative body whose members are restricted to one term, and whose members are drawn primarily from the everyday retail merchant, foodservice worker, automotive technician, web designer, etc, rather than career politicians.

I mean, when you think about it, this is exactly how we put together juries that decide the fates of individuals. Why don't we do this for the nation? Sure, there is room for colossal fail, but are we really doing that much better with the system we have?

(I'd almost suggest discarding political parties in favor of coalitions, but that may be asking too much of America...)

Date: 2008-09-29 09:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kevin-standlee.livejournal.com
I think you, like the term-limits folks, over-emphasize the importance of turnover. In California we have term limits, and I think it's made things worse, as nobody has any reason to take the long view. I voted for term limits when I was younger. I'd vote to overturn them given a chance to do so.

You're right, however, that juries are the judicial equivalent of the house of representatives. But note that, in general, juries are asked to decide facts, not law, and these aren't the same things.

Date: 2008-09-29 09:49 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hubbit.livejournal.com
But note that, in general, juries are asked to decide facts, not law, and these aren't the same things.

A good point that obviously eluded me.

Date: 2008-09-29 09:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kevin-standlee.livejournal.com
I think about this distinction (law/fact) a lot in a different context: The Hugo Awards, where you have an Awards Administrator (equivalent to a judge in a trial) and the thousands of members of the World Science Fiction Convention (equivalent to the jury). The Administrator decides technical eligibility questions (when was it published; how long is it), but the members of WSFS decide matters of fact (Is the work science fiction or fantasy? If so, is is worthy of an award?)

And it's the WSFS Business Meeting, or legislature of WSFS, that makes the rules. The analogy isn't perfect, because every member of WSFS can participate in the Business Meeting, although usually only about 100-200 of the thousands eligible do so. Also, there's a high probability that the 100-200 active "legislators" are a significant subset of the 500-1000 active Hugo Award voters.

Date: 2008-09-29 10:58 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chipmunck.livejournal.com
I like the idea of term limits to curb the idea of political careers, but at the same time I feel term limits is like turn over. It takes so long to 'train' someone at most jobs, the ramp up time, the networking blah blah blah. By the time they get a hang of 'how to do it' they are out. So I feel that makes term limits a bit burdensome.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:03 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kevin-standlee.livejournal.com
And I have some experience in this personally, as well. I spent one three-year term as one of the appointees of Santa Clara County, California to the Caltrain Citizens' Advisory Committee. It wasn't until near the end of my term that I believed that I had got the knack of how the system worked and how I could get anything accomplished. But I appointment was not renewed, probably because I'm too much of a troublemaker and they really don't want the CAC making waves. (I'd been quoted on local news being critical of Caltrain, and I know how to speak in sound-bites, so it might have been effective.)

Date: 2008-09-29 11:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chipmunck.livejournal.com
You know... The idea of 'laymen' going into our congress or other governmental powers is something I can get behind in a way. As long as they aren't totally dumb in a common sense way.
But then we see this total "Oh my god, they don't have experience!!" flung in anyone's face who tries to get into places of power. We saw it with Obama, and now Palin. Yet it seems like the public does want the 'layman' in instead of the politician. 'Someone we can trust' Sigh.

btw: I would love a coalition of sorts! That would be great.

Date: 2008-09-30 04:14 am (UTC)
wrog: (party politics)
From: [personal profile] wrog
It'd be lovely to get rid of parties the two-party system, but then there's reality where that doesn't happen. Ever. So I suggest dealing with it.
fixed it for you

Date: 2008-09-30 04:55 am (UTC)
wrog: (party politics)
From: [personal profile] wrog
and they're all parliamentary-type systems where "party" means something a bit different than it does here (or at least "major party" does).

The ironic thing here is [livejournal.com profile] hubbit talks about "discarding parties in favor of coalitions" apparently without realizing that the major parties in this country essentially are coalitions.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:46 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angharads-house.livejournal.com
we seem to be heading down the coalition road in Canada, now, too.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angharads-house.livejournal.com
well, let's see: Bloc, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, New Democrats -- makes five parties here in Canada.

But, to be fair, the Bloc act only for Quebec and keep saying they would never join a coalition government; the Greens are too small to be anything other than a source of vote leakage at this point; the Liberals are a shattered rump of an old party. Four of those parties are somewhere left of centre.

Net effect is that the unitary right (the Conservatives) tend to acquire power. So, a multi-party system isn't always great.

[and we are scared shitless of the prospect of a Conservative majority here, but that's a separate story with its own song]

Date: 2008-09-30 04:52 am (UTC)
ext_24913: (Default)
From: [identity profile] cow.livejournal.com
We have five! Well, five with a realistic chance of electing people to the federal level, anyway.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angharads-house.livejournal.com
ayuh, you have a fair chance of having a Green MP this time.

Date: 2008-09-30 05:50 pm (UTC)
ext_24913: (Default)
From: [identity profile] cow.livejournal.com
Yup. And I was also wording it that way to not exclude all the provincial and local parties out there, or the minor federal ones that run candidates but don't win.

Date: 2008-09-30 06:00 pm (UTC)
ext_24913: (Default)
From: [identity profile] cow.livejournal.com
This is why we can't have nice things vote. :D

Date: 2008-10-02 12:35 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hubbit.livejournal.com
What is a bilateral legislative body?

I must apologize (now that I've been offline for two days for Rosh Hashana and could not clarify). I meant BICAMERAL, ie two halves.

Date: 2008-09-30 02:39 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] king-chiron.livejournal.com
Personally, I think the solutions from such a government would be as bad or even worse than our current system (if you can believe).

I had an interesting political textbook in college, "The Irony of Democracy". The case it presented was that the elites, those that run the political parties (both Democratic and Republican) are more committed to the essentials freedoms we value than the average American. Freedom of Speech, Religion, Right to Assemble, etc, they showed that a sizable chunk of the public has absolutely no interest in preserving any of those.

Personally I think if had a government of "common people" what we would have had after 9/11 would make the Patriot Act look like a walk in the park.

Date: 2008-09-30 06:00 pm (UTC)
ext_24913: (cowsign)
From: [identity profile] cow.livejournal.com
See also: the damage Washington citizens have repeatedly done to themselves courtesy of the initiative system.

Taking that on a federal level, including access to the military and everything else, scares the hell out of me.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angharads-house.livejournal.com
CBC seems to think so, as of this morning.

Date: 2008-09-29 07:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gfish.livejournal.com
We'll see how bad the economy gets. If things really do crash, then I don't expect much of a problem.

Date: 2008-09-29 08:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kirbyk.livejournal.com
Probably not - most congresscritters in Swing Districts voted against it, regardless of party:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/swing-district-congressmen-doomed.html

Date: 2008-09-29 08:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] chipmunck.livejournal.com
You know. I'm totally confused by this thing. I'm like.. The Republicans against this, yet the Congressional Dem's are for, yet my friends who are pretty liberal are against.

Okay- Where is Jesus?!? LOL! ;)

Date: 2008-09-29 09:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] hubbit.livejournal.com
I'm fairly liberal, and I was very against the failout on general principle. The financial industry, in its panic, is scrambling for the kind of emergency relief that we as individual consumers are DENIED, mostly thanks to their lobbying efforts.

Yes, a financial meltdown will suck for us all, but I will have no sympathy for the financial titans who have been taking us for a ride/riding our backs for so long. I can't wait for them to fall victim to the credit score system they foisted on us so we can all get our payments/premiums/interest rates individually decided based on who's saying what about our financial habits in areas completely unrelated to the field being decided.

That...was way too wordy. Sorry.

Date: 2008-09-30 03:31 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] llachglin.livejournal.com
This is a case where ideology and factional interests cut across party lines, plus you have each side playing politics, and opinions are clouded by socioeconomic class.

The populist urge is to just let the banks suffer, but the problem with that is that in this case if the banks fail there's no credit--and eventually no money--for anyone else. On the other hand, if the bailout is just a transfer of money to the banks with no accountability, the underlying problem remains and the government risks its own credit, and then we're in really bad trouble.

I'm not just a liberal, I'm a social democrat. You can even call me a socialist if you want. But I think knee-jerk opposition to any plan proposed by the Bush administration is a really bad idea. The risk of Depression is real. Liberals generally and Democrats specifically can't just let the Republicans block this and not come up with another plan that will actually work. Until they do, they're just as responsible as Bush and the Republicans for what happens.

Date: 2008-09-30 12:44 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] angharads-house.livejournal.com
"they're just as responsible as Bush and the Republicans for what happens"

true enough; they made the mess together.

I must confess, from a non-citizen's view, that the behaviours and expressed attitudes on both sides have been indistinguishable over the past eight years.

Having the government's own credit rating fall may indeed be more painful in the short term, and it will almost certainly take client states like Canada and Mexico down also; but in the longer view, going through this horrid experience now may give us all a better chance of preserving civil institutions intact -- this as opposed to the populist throwing of the bankers into the general firestorm, which certainly would give us a reprise of the Great Depression.

If this is the October surprise, well, it is a singular dreadful one, but much better than the opening of another front in the Oil Wars.

[apologies for pain-addled writing: might edit this later to make it more sensible]

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