an idle thought
Sep. 29th, 2008 12:14 pmDid the Democrats just give the GOP 15-20* seats in the House this fall?
Popular opinion was overwhelmingly against this action. Calls were ranging between 100:1 against and 300:1 against, depending upon representative. House Republicans rebelled against the Bush administration and its 19% approval rating; Democrats continued to be enablers. GOP economic conservatives who fought against this now have a reason to vote Republican.
I'm not paranoid enough to wonder whether the whole thing was a setup from the beginning - even though with a plan so disconnected from reality you have to wonder - but I do have to wonder if the House GOP saw the public reaction and took an opportunity handed to them.
eta: see
kevin_standlee's commentary here about interesting parliamentary action. I wondered about some of that too but didn't know what it meant.
*: I am, for the record, pulling the "15-20" number completely out of my ass.
Popular opinion was overwhelmingly against this action. Calls were ranging between 100:1 against and 300:1 against, depending upon representative. House Republicans rebelled against the Bush administration and its 19% approval rating; Democrats continued to be enablers. GOP economic conservatives who fought against this now have a reason to vote Republican.
I'm not paranoid enough to wonder whether the whole thing was a setup from the beginning - even though with a plan so disconnected from reality you have to wonder - but I do have to wonder if the House GOP saw the public reaction and took an opportunity handed to them.
eta: see
*: I am, for the record, pulling the "15-20" number completely out of my ass.
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Date: 2008-09-29 07:14 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-29 07:21 pm (UTC)Neat trick, getting the opposite party to vote for something wildly unpopular.
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:04 pm (UTC)Do you think that Congressional Republicans, being that they are currently separating themselves from unpopular President Bush (R) so they can pass something, yet make it look like they are not on Bush's shoulders? We are seeing this with Dino Rossi in Washington. He has taken action to say he is "GOP" to remove himself from the 'republican' word since it's so unpopular.
Bush = Republic, Bush = Failure So Republican = Failure. Hence If Republican run as fast away from anything Bush says.
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Date: 2008-09-29 07:29 pm (UTC)Politically, it is impossible for anything to get done. What we need is a populist, social democratic response to this crisis. Anything that is even slightly more socially democratic will provoke even greater Republican opposition, though.
If nothing gets done, it will take a miracle to avoid Great Depression II. Let's hope that Obama has an inner FDR because if he doesn't we're totally fucked.
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Date: 2008-09-29 08:56 pm (UTC)It's amazing how much mud flinging there is no matter what the result. Congressional leaders/people seem to take any situation and find the ability of blaming the OTHER person. There goes any sort of personal responsibility.
Disenchanted over here. Sorry.
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:25 pm (UTC)What we need is a bilateral legislative body whose members are restricted to one term, and whose members are drawn primarily from the everyday retail merchant, foodservice worker, automotive technician, web designer, etc, rather than career politicians.
I mean, when you think about it, this is exactly how we put together juries that decide the fates of individuals. Why don't we do this for the nation? Sure, there is room for colossal fail, but are we really doing that much better with the system we have?
(I'd almost suggest discarding political parties in favor of coalitions, but that may be asking too much of America...)
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:43 pm (UTC)You're right, however, that juries are the judicial equivalent of the house of representatives. But note that, in general, juries are asked to decide facts, not law, and these aren't the same things.
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:49 pm (UTC)A good point that obviously eluded me.
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:55 pm (UTC)And it's the WSFS Business Meeting, or legislature of WSFS, that makes the rules. The analogy isn't perfect, because every member of WSFS can participate in the Business Meeting, although usually only about 100-200 of the thousands eligible do so. Also, there's a high probability that the 100-200 active "legislators" are a significant subset of the 500-1000 active Hugo Award voters.
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Date: 2008-09-29 10:58 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 12:03 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-29 11:01 pm (UTC)But then we see this total "Oh my god, they don't have experience!!" flung in anyone's face who tries to get into places of power. We saw it with Obama, and now Palin. Yet it seems like the public does want the 'layman' in instead of the politician. 'Someone we can trust' Sigh.
btw: I would love a coalition of sorts! That would be great.
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Date: 2008-09-30 12:13 am (UTC)I think proportional representation would be a significant advance. Replace, say, the Senate with a PR body.
It'd be lovely to get rid of parties, but then there's reality where that doesn't happen. Ever. So I suggest dealing with it.
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Date: 2008-09-30 04:14 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 04:34 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 04:55 am (UTC)The ironic thing here is
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Date: 2008-09-30 12:46 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 12:32 pm (UTC)But, to be fair, the Bloc act only for Quebec and keep saying they would never join a coalition government; the Greens are too small to be anything other than a source of vote leakage at this point; the Liberals are a shattered rump of an old party. Four of those parties are somewhere left of centre.
Net effect is that the unitary right (the Conservatives) tend to acquire power. So, a multi-party system isn't always great.
[and we are scared shitless of the prospect of a Conservative majority here, but that's a separate story with its own song]
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Date: 2008-09-30 04:52 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 12:33 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 05:50 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 05:57 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 06:00 pm (UTC)have nice thingsvote. :DCHARRRRRRRRRRRGE!
Date: 2008-09-30 06:11 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-10-02 12:35 am (UTC)I must apologize (now that I've been offline for two days for Rosh Hashana and could not clarify). I meant BICAMERAL, ie two halves.
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Date: 2008-09-30 02:39 am (UTC)I had an interesting political textbook in college, "The Irony of Democracy". The case it presented was that the elites, those that run the political parties (both Democratic and Republican) are more committed to the essentials freedoms we value than the average American. Freedom of Speech, Religion, Right to Assemble, etc, they showed that a sizable chunk of the public has absolutely no interest in preserving any of those.
Personally I think if had a government of "common people" what we would have had after 9/11 would make the Patriot Act look like a walk in the park.
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Date: 2008-09-30 06:00 pm (UTC)Taking that on a federal level, including access to the military and everything else, scares the hell out of me.
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Date: 2008-09-30 12:38 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 12:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-29 07:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-29 08:14 pm (UTC)http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/swing-district-congressmen-doomed.html
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Date: 2008-09-29 08:54 pm (UTC)Okay- Where is Jesus?!? LOL! ;)
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Date: 2008-09-29 09:30 pm (UTC)Yes, a financial meltdown will suck for us all, but I will have no sympathy for the financial titans who have been taking us for a ride/riding our backs for so long. I can't wait for them to fall victim to the credit score system they foisted on us so we can all get our payments/premiums/interest rates individually decided based on who's saying what about our financial habits in areas completely unrelated to the field being decided.
That...was way too wordy. Sorry.
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Date: 2008-09-30 12:15 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-09-30 03:31 am (UTC)The populist urge is to just let the banks suffer, but the problem with that is that in this case if the banks fail there's no credit--and eventually no money--for anyone else. On the other hand, if the bailout is just a transfer of money to the banks with no accountability, the underlying problem remains and the government risks its own credit, and then we're in really bad trouble.
I'm not just a liberal, I'm a social democrat. You can even call me a socialist if you want. But I think knee-jerk opposition to any plan proposed by the Bush administration is a really bad idea. The risk of Depression is real. Liberals generally and Democrats specifically can't just let the Republicans block this and not come up with another plan that will actually work. Until they do, they're just as responsible as Bush and the Republicans for what happens.
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Date: 2008-09-30 12:44 pm (UTC)true enough; they made the mess together.
I must confess, from a non-citizen's view, that the behaviours and expressed attitudes on both sides have been indistinguishable over the past eight years.
Having the government's own credit rating fall may indeed be more painful in the short term, and it will almost certainly take client states like Canada and Mexico down also; but in the longer view, going through this horrid experience now may give us all a better chance of preserving civil institutions intact -- this as opposed to the populist throwing of the bankers into the general firestorm, which certainly would give us a reprise of the Great Depression.
If this is the October surprise, well, it is a singular dreadful one, but much better than the opening of another front in the Oil Wars.
[apologies for pain-addled writing: might edit this later to make it more sensible]