FISA post-mortem, part one: personal performance

[solarbird]

I think this post-mortem is going to span a couple of posts. I could be wrong, but we'll see. I'll write them as they come to mind. This is the first, a personal-performance post-mortem.

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One of the key aspects to any campaign of any sort in a democratic republic is the building of large-scale popular support for any side of any cause. One of the problems with the mainstream media is a continuing and callous disregard for the truth, substituting in its place a laughable expression of "balance," where any two sides of any argument are equally valid, or, in the political media, the stuffing of any reality into the same small set of basic stories the media have been telling about politics in the US for the last 30-plus years. Another is in the control by major news organisations by a rather limited set of individuals and groups who contribute so much to the political class.

The web has been touted as a necessarily replacement, or, at least, provoker of reform. And that potential is actual; it's had a real effect, though not nearly as much of one as one might have hoped as yet. Reporters - particularly the stars - are getting a lot more direct and confrontational reaction, with bloggers and the like taking apart the bullshit in their stories in ways they've not been seeing in some time - at least since the major consolidations happened. They don't like it, but so far, they don't dislike it enough - or rather are not affected by it enough - to change how they behave. C.f. the entire illegal domestic propaganda scandal, to this day as far as I know completely not covered by the television media, still by far the single largest source of news for Americans. And that made the New York Times, the embodiment of establishment print media. It's shameful, but they've successfully ignored the story to death.

There are a couple of ways the interactive, internet-based medium of blogging can create actual effect. One can build up a large direct audience (c.f. Greenwald, Sullivan, Redstate, Balloon Juice, and so on), or one can get by on a smaller core readership if you can establish your messages as memes - maybe only so many people read you, but they pick up the message, and repeat it, carrying on to others. Then at least some percentage of those people must act.

This is what I was referring to when I mentioned earlier, immediately after the FISA failure, that I do not matter. I'm quite capable of laying out the data, explaining it, and putting dots together to form a conclusion. I have a depressingly good track record at this, if I might take a moment to compliment myself. But being right is completely irrelevant in this type of situation if you can't prompt others to act with you, or, better, prompt others to prompt still other people to do so.

I have quite solidly demonstrated that I am incapable of doing either, and for that, I apologise. Yes, in the 90s, I had some success with a very small, very tightly focused mailing list that you couldn't get on if you didn't promise to pass the data along to organisations which could act on it. I was able to help shape a local media message with some of this data, and I was able to provide information to groups of of people already set up to be actors on these topics. But that was, for the most part, a collection of already-active groups who simply didn't have the intelligence-gathering capabilities I had. I've been unable to replicate that success, or build either of the two new types.

First, I've been entirely incapable of building a readership large enough to matter. Or rather, I should say, I haven't been attractive enough on these topics to build one. I've stayed at or under 350 unique hits per page now for two years, with surprisingly little fluctuation. I don't know what percentage of those viewers actually read these things, or just skim, or are just here for the flower pictures, or economics, or whatever. And a tiny, tiny percentage - I'd say somewhere on the order of 3-5% - actually take action. (This is in terms of what I really know, what people have told me, and such.) This could be a higher number, invisibly to me.

I've similarly failed to present information in such a way that causes that information to be spread online, which for these purposes is where it matters. (Talking about this with friends over beer is nice, but doesn't really advance the meme much, as it certainly dies there.) As far as I can tell, only 1-2% or so of the people reading these writings ever pass them on to anyone else; links back in my friendslist are exceedingly rare, and I don't see the readership growth I would see if this were going on substantially more frequently than I realise. In short, it's simply not happening enough to matter.

I'm more than willing to take a substantial portion of the blame here, in that I can present the data as much as I want, but I clearly have no idea how to push the psychological buttons necessary to provoke the right kinds of reaction. This doesn't surprise me, for reasons I won't get into here; suffice to say that I'm well aware of this problem.

I had, on the other hand, hoped that the facts of the matter, presented reasonably clearly and well-sourced, would be enough to convince others to act on their own. Clearly, for most people, this hasn't been the case. I can think of several possible reasons for this:

1. People think I'm making things up, panicky, or simply overreacting. I know this is true in the case of some readers. I have a long history of providing links back to my sources; I can't make up the minds of other people for them. I explain myself as best I can, but I can't overcome resistance to data in peoples' minds.
2. People in my readership understand and actively support what's going on. I again know this is true for at least some of my readers.
3. People in my readership understand what's going on, oppose it, but feel any action they could individually take is pointless. This is self-defeating, particularly since if all they do is act on their own, it's pretty much true. That's where the meme thing comes in. But I don't know what I can do about it, since, demonstrably, I am not capable of triggering relay of the data.
4. People in my readership understand what's going on, oppose it in theory, but will not be prompted to act until they feel they, themselves, are personally threatened. This is also something I know to be true for at least some portion of my readership. As I consider actions, rather than statements, the most important measure of someone's position (c.f. my distaste for the Democratic Party as an organisation), I personally interpret this as most people being basically okay with the situation as it stands. It may not be the preferred state, but it's a reasonable state.

I'm sure there are others, and I imagine some of these other reasons will be mentioned in comments. But these are the ones which I either know outright to be true, or which seem highly plausible.

In summary, the key takeaway points for me personally are:

1. I have been unable to provoke significant action with the methodology which best suits my talents.
2. I have similarly been unable to provoke propagation of data with that methodology.
3. The actions I am protesting themselves, even when well-documented, are not sufficiently important to the overwhelming majority of my readership to provoke either of these reactions.

My time spent working on these issues has not, I suppose, been completely wasted; if nothing else, I can look back at it and know that I did everything I personally could. However, I unfortunately do not see any way that I can actually fix any of these situations. I'd be a disaster at attempting to be a political leader; my largely rationalist forms of argument are nearly useless outside of geekdom and I despise the pick-your-tribe-to-pick-your-truth bullshit model of most political campaigns. Essentially, I really just don't have anywhere to go here. Or, to stay on theme, I have no forward-moving action items in this section.

Comments

[silussa.livejournal.com]

For what it may matter....I contacted both my Senators on the FISA nightmare bill. Unfortunately, I live in Florida, where even the Democrats tend to be conservative.

:(

[silussa.livejournal.com]

Oh, and I'm now contributing monthly to the ACLU, where I was already a member. I'm certain certain Republican members of my family were surprised to get THAT email.

[solarbird]

I think the term "conservative" should be retired in these cases in favour of the more accurate "authoritarian."

[(Anonymous)]

apologies for anonymous posting, but sometimes the message requires it if the writer is to retain any capacity for free action in the matter.

1. as you yourself have noted, you have a fair level of silent readership. one might guess that organisers are more likely to stay silent than would activists: it is easy enough to lose effectiveness by conflating the messenger with the message (to be fair, you have maintained good separation there).

2. following from the above, there is no immediate way to track the onward movement of ideas which you, or others of like intent and action, may have raised via your journalling; not all effective readers will mention sources, as much for the protection of the sources as anything else.

3. points 1 and 2 above are of course now largely moot in this post-FISA mess era.

4. notwithstanding point 3, please consider (in the words of this anonymous source at least) that your gathering, collation and presentation of information has been useful; you are now here hearing this at least this one time.

5. so, in addition to the four possibilities you mention, I would suggest a fifth one, that readers (at least some of the ones who seldom comment) are taking the information away and acting on it. You will not know to what extent this is true.

...considered sending this backchannel, but that might sidestep the possibility of catalysing further discussion, whether here or elsewhere.

[solarbird]

So you're saying the lurkers support me in email, then?

[solarbird]

But to add a more serious note:

Private communications, in this kind of context, are not nearly as useful as public ones. Key is that they are not discoverable: a random person won't find it. All the people who read you won't find it, and that's probably a larger number than will read email you send. (Not true in all cases, of course; just saying.) And even if the email recipient list is larger, all of the recipients of such communications are going to be people you already know are interested, and, accordingly, are going to be most likely people who already agree with you on this or already know your position and have formulated their arguments against it.

If you want to reach the unreached, you have to go with public posts, not private ones. I see people on my friendslist posting political arguments - speeches, even, occasionally - friendslocked. And every time I see another one of those posts, I think and what is the fucking point of that?

[silussa.livejournal.com]

If I might suggest a somewhat off the wall idea....most of the more right-wing advocates I see on LJ are also podcast. At least some of which are available on Itunes.

Might be worth a thought; the software isn't difficult, I understand, nor expensive. Might work some of your music in, too.

[solarbird]

As someone who used to work radio and really enjoyed it, I really don't think I'm cut out for that sort of thing. I write well because I can revise, think, change, refine - extended monologuing is far too off-the-cuff for me to handle. But I appreciate the suggestion.

[ummdruff.livejournal.com]

You won't be put on the terrorist watchlist by commenting on this blog, by the way.

I like your writing but as long as you handcuff yourself to the "2" party system you're neutralizing yourself. Congress knows what we want; congress doesn't care what we want. Same with Obama.

Let me welcome you to the lonely but fertile world of defeatism and hopelessness. Hope is an anchor that keeps people trapped in a malignant system. Only when we admit defeat can we honestly start seeking out real solutions, if they in fact exist. People can't/won't be awoken en masse, for whatever reasons. You're not the first to try. This isn't a failing on your part.

The media isn't incompetent; the media is complicit. They don't report real news because that's not what they're for.

I agree with the tone of your posts but I feel the same way when I read Greenwald. I see an accurate diagnosis followed by old faith-based prescriptions. And year after year, nothing changes. In the words of Dennis Perrin:

"Still, I've seen and experienced enough transcendence to know that there's another way to live, but it's not going to be handed to us. And those of us who fight for it will encounter true hatred and spite, primarily from our liberal cousins, but from reactionaries as well. Too many people have deep vested interests in domination and control. As friend IOZ says, unplugging from them is the only way out. After that, the real work of honest, meaningful solidarity begins."

http://dennisperrin.blogspot.com/2008/06/submission.html

[solarbird]

I like your writing but as long as you handcuff yourself to the "2" party system you're neutralizing yourself.
You. REALLY. haven't. bothered. checking. my. backposts, have you?

And, look, I don't mind. You don't need to. But if you're going to make guesses about my personal beliefs and prescriptions then you're really going to need to have some vague idea what you're talking about. Check my politics tag, find all the NEW/PARTIES/NOW posts, things like that.

[cow.livejournal.com]

Wow. Hi, you must be new here. Soda fridge and coffee machine are in the back; washrooms are down the hall to your left; and Dara's never even come close to endorsing Obama and has, in fact, been critical of the two-party system, disillusioned by the media, and noting the rise of the authoritarian streak in both parties for .. well, for longer than I've been on the internet.

I've been on the internet since I was 11.

Hi, welcome! }:D

[mathmuffin.livejournal.com]

And then there is me and maybe some others like me, who are under Hatch Act restrictions not to get involved in this political process. I could have written a letter to Senator Barbara Mikulski; unfortunately, it takes time to write a reasonable and persuasive letter and I did not make that time. I regret that, since Mikulski voted for the FISA Amendment Act of 2008 as is.

Your efforts have been keeping me informed of the concerns of many American people. Perhaps one day in my government job I will be forced to say, "Technically, this is legal. But it it unAmerican, so we will not do it." I need to build up my arguments and my courage in case that day comes. Your postings help.

[technoshaman.livejournal.com]

Please do continue to post about stuff. I don't have the time, and if I had the time I'm not sure I have the stomach, to slog through all the crap and sift out the good bits.

I need to go back and re-study Vaclav Havel. Badly. We can do this, get ourselves out of this hole... 'cause it's been done before. If Poland and the Czech Republic can un-screw themselves from a much worse situation, we can do it too. Just gotta figure out how.

[solarbird]

One thing you really need to recognise is that the situation is not, "if Americans knew, they'd do something," but rather, "Americans, for the most part, don't care, and won't until it hurts them personally." Those of us who do care aren't a majority opinion; we're a minourity, and a tiny one at that.

Now it's quite true that this is how Americans have been educated - or more correctly, systematically failed by their failed educational system - and that if they knew much of anything about politics, history, government, and so on, they might come to different conclusions. But they don't, and, for that matter, aren't really interested in learning any of it. In that environment, these actions by the political class aren't just unsurprising; they're also, perhaps, inevitable.

[flirtaciousj.livejournal.com]

For me it's a mix; I pay more attention to the political stuff than the economics stuff. But I do value your opinion even on those occasional things I don't agree with you on. I can't tell you that my attntion is worth the obvious time and effort that you put into it; that's up to you. But you never know what fruits will come from the seeds you scatter.

The flowers and stuff are nice, but that's not why I'm here. I read for a different perspective, to be challenged and stretched. And for the work that you've done here I thank you.

[poodlgrl.livejournal.com]

Well, I read it. Mark reads it (he doesn't subscribe to LJ because.... LAME). Anyway, he reads from my machine a lot so I don't know if it is unique. But still, for me - - it is mind boggling sometimes. And sometimes I'm like "Very fascinating...hey! look! a shiny poodle!" because that's my nature. And mostly, it just harshes my hard-won mellow. It feels like a whole lot I'm powerless to do anything about, and I have two small children to care for by myself everyday, so survival is just hard already. I guess that puts me in the sucky #3 camp.

[kathrynt.livejournal.com]

yeah, this. It's not that I don't care, or even that I think the situation is acceptable; it's that I don't necessarily have a lot of energy left over after I deal with the necessities of life. I care a LOT about the erosion of privacy rights in this country, but I care a lot more about making sure Lillian has food to eat and isn't drawing on the walls, you know? I have to.

[solarbird]

HI INDIRECTLY-READING MARK!

[westrider.livejournal.com]

I will say that your writings have been part of what has got me started on some actions on a personal level, in hopes of getting myself un-depressed enough to start taking action on a broader level.

I have been sporadically attempting to point people here from other Forums and Communities, but I'm fairly sure that that has had a negligible effect, since, as you've pointed out, your own readership has not gone up noticeably as a result.

I'm currently solidly in the third category of your readers, but I think that has as much to do with my mental health issues as anything, and I'm hoping that I'll be able to get some sort of a handle on them relatively soon, and maybe actually start taking some sort of effective action, though at this point, I really have no idea as to what that might entail.

Finally, Thank You once more for doing all this research and analysis. This LJ was the gateway that has led me to a whole new range of sources and issues, and really opened my eyes to a lot of things that I'd previously had very little idea of.

[(Anonymous)]

I've learned a lot from reading your blog, and I've talked about FISA a lot with others.

I didn't realize your goal in making these posts was to inspire political action. Maybe that was obvious to everyone but me! I guess I read those posts in the same light as your economic updates: to get a great summary of non-mainstream truthtelling about an important issue.

If you're evaluating time investment in terms of how much real-world action blog posts provoke, that's a very high bar. I sometimes wonder how much of that any blog inspires.

I'll make a few suggestions although you're probably aware of these points:

- You might be more successful gaining readership outside of Livejournal. On other blogging platforms, your posts can be spidered, trackbacked, etc.

- You also might consider separate blogs for different major topics.

- Sprinkle your posts with the point you just raised, that you believe awareness is useless with specific real-world action. Ask people to respond with comments about what they've done. Make people more uncomfortable, rather than just making them informed.

Sometimes awareness-raising, even if it ends in short-term defeat, can lead to victory in the end. As a kid I helped some sign-waving protestors picket the Seabrook NH nuclear plant. There was enormous effort to stop that plant from coming online both from no-nukes types and also from locals who believed there was no way to evacuate summer beachgoers if there were ever an accident.

The plant went into action despite all the protests -- too much money had been spent and the utility threatened bankruptcy if it didn't get its binky. But the number of reactors were scaled back, and moreover, utilities became very leery of investing in future nuclear power plants in the US after all the delays and costs the protest caused.

I hope you continue blogging about important issues.

[wiredhound.livejournal.com]

Oops. It is I. :)

[cafiorello.livejournal.com]

I appreciate your posts and do what little I have time and energy for.

Being rational just doesn't change people's minds. Pisses me off, but it's true.

Have you read Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point? You're a maven; you need some connectors and some salespeople.

Cathy

[solarbird]

I have not read this. I take it I should?

[epawtows.livejournal.com]

Well, I've sent plenty of letters to congresscritters based on stuff I've read here (including FISA), but I don't think I've said so here. Figured it would sound like I was blowing my own horn, and I hate doing that.

So, where do you go from here?

[mojave-wolf.livejournal.com]

I really want to write a substantive reply to this, but I'm not quite sure what to say, and very tired, so let me just say both that I sympathize and that I hope you keep doing this and that you have had some effect on me, at least (seriously, I almost never wrote e-mails to congresspeople before the past six months, and part of that was being exceptionally involved in this primary and part was the importance of things but part of it was you, I think).

And you've helped call my attention to things I might otherwise have missed, too, and generally had an impact on my overall thinking.

Sometimes I do think you're wrong (i.e. your belief in the credibility of the batshit crazy Ehrenreich hit piece and your general assessment of the Clintons; actually that's the only thing I can think of where I think you are wrong offhand) but on the whole I love reading your political posts.

Anyway, have some understanding of what you are thinking. Haven't been posting much politics lately because most of my f-list don't care and some have actively told me they are annoyed by my posts (or made vague posts in their journals that seem to be referring to their annoyance w/my political posts, in other cases), and I no longer see the light at the end of the tunnel. Am waiting for *something* to break right, or wrong, or happen to indicate people might pay attention, before spending my energy on something not so much fun as my non-politico postings and that annoys half or more of my readers. Tho I do plan to start posting politics again eventually; I mean, even tho my readership is a tiny fraction of the one you think is too small, what else can I do but try when the opportunity to maybe have some sort of pond-ripple influence is maybe there?

Also, if you now have extra free time, you might like the fiction of John Twelve Hawks. Similar political outlooks, I think.

[mhaolain.livejournal.com]

Solarbird, I disagree with your fundamental assessment of your activities - that you don't matter.

I think you've fallen into the trap of thinking you have to provoke, and the natural feeling of futility that accompanies such an outlook has caught hold of you. The Empire wants you to feel you have to provoke (so they can crush you). The Empire wants you to feel futility (so you will stop resisting). Get back to your Sun-Tzu: Avoid engagement unless conditions are favorable.

On the personal level, never underestimate the power of people talking over a beer. Always remember that change starts with one person refusing the impersonal demands of the machine. Most people are struggling to keep their souls from being harvested. You can't expect them to do anything more than say "no".

Refusing to submit is acting. That's when you constellate what you need to survive. Reading is acting. After saying no, the next step is to learn you aren't alone. Your writing may be the only thing keeping people's minds from giving up that last inch. How do you know that the seeds you planted in the last two years aren't the ones that keep some of those 350 visitors from starving to death in the wasteland?

You are an example to others. When you are just yourself, people need you. The light shines behind you and then you can kindle hope in a thousand, thousand hearts. Wherever people get together and see how much they have in common, and how much they don't need the machine, that's the ultimate weapon. The Empire fears that more than any activists trying to get in the club to affect change or rouse the atomized masses to rise up.

On a larger scale, avoid confusing the smallness of your contribution with ineffectiveness. You do not control the process. None of us do, not even the aristocrats. Larger psychic forces than us are running the show. You are responsible only for your conscious actions.

Are you prepared to face the reality that the struggle for freedom is a permanent part of the human condition and will never end? If you found out that evil wins no matter what you do, would you still do what is right?

Where do you go from here, Solarbird? Say yes to evil without surrendering. You yourself are the seeing. Do your thing, and you change the world.