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Jul. 17th, 2008 11:41 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdOkay, so, we're finally getting that oil correction I've been talking about for a while, even if it came later than I'd imagined. Watch for exultations about how everything is better now; these are wrong, but you'll see them anyway. Interestingly, on Tuesday, there was a reasonable chance of an outright market crash of several hundred points - but it didn't happen, which means the situation is still fundamentally orderly, and we're in an upwards snapback correction.
Unfortunately, the fundamental problems are still substantially unaddressed. Merrill Lynch is warning of a global funding crisis. Jim Rogers calls the attempted Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout a "disaster." Mish, similarly, has harsh words again. He's not fond of the recent selective extra enforcement of anti-shorting rules, either, wondering if the stocks not targeted have been "tossed to the wolves."
Chris Whalen at RGE Monitor, on the other hand, thinks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should just be nationalised. Now. On the opposite side, Money Week thinks that a bailout would doom the Dollar. Global Macro EconoMonitor talks about how we got here.
On that subject, capital flows reports for May were inconclusive. The thesis that the US will still be seen as a possible site of flight-to-safety, while arguably crazy, is supported, however. Brad Setser talks quite a bit about this here.
No big swing in the latest H.3 Reserves data; still hugely negative, still surviving entirely on loans, but very modestly improved from worst-in-history lows.
Dr. Roubini has an overview column describing the financial crisis as the worst since the Great Depression, setting up the worst recession in decades. He's been more ahead of the curve than anybody else I read on a lot of this stuff, so unfortunately, you should pay attention to him. Note that the TED spread continues its latest spike up.
Minyanville's Kevin Depew thinks we're fucked, and talks about media coverage of the Great Depression during the Great Depression. His column on the crisis of the real is also interesting.
Here's the rumour du jour, and I note this is only a rumour: This blogger who says they work for a nonprofit says in a coordinated action on Monday, most or all of the major mortgage lenders stopped doing mortgage work-outs and moved to an aggressive foreclosure stance. In later posts, they've stood by the claim. I have no confirmation. I do know that a lot of banks have been forestalling on foreclosures for a long time, trying to keep the houses off their books.
Unfortunately, the fundamental problems are still substantially unaddressed. Merrill Lynch is warning of a global funding crisis. Jim Rogers calls the attempted Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bailout a "disaster." Mish, similarly, has harsh words again. He's not fond of the recent selective extra enforcement of anti-shorting rules, either, wondering if the stocks not targeted have been "tossed to the wolves."
Chris Whalen at RGE Monitor, on the other hand, thinks Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should just be nationalised. Now. On the opposite side, Money Week thinks that a bailout would doom the Dollar. Global Macro EconoMonitor talks about how we got here.
On that subject, capital flows reports for May were inconclusive. The thesis that the US will still be seen as a possible site of flight-to-safety, while arguably crazy, is supported, however. Brad Setser talks quite a bit about this here.
No big swing in the latest H.3 Reserves data; still hugely negative, still surviving entirely on loans, but very modestly improved from worst-in-history lows.
Dr. Roubini has an overview column describing the financial crisis as the worst since the Great Depression, setting up the worst recession in decades. He's been more ahead of the curve than anybody else I read on a lot of this stuff, so unfortunately, you should pay attention to him. Note that the TED spread continues its latest spike up.
Minyanville's Kevin Depew thinks we're fucked, and talks about media coverage of the Great Depression during the Great Depression. His column on the crisis of the real is also interesting.
Here's the rumour du jour, and I note this is only a rumour: This blogger who says they work for a nonprofit says in a coordinated action on Monday, most or all of the major mortgage lenders stopped doing mortgage work-outs and moved to an aggressive foreclosure stance. In later posts, they've stood by the claim. I have no confirmation. I do know that a lot of banks have been forestalling on foreclosures for a long time, trying to keep the houses off their books.
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Date: 2008-07-18 06:46 am (UTC)Of course, nobody has ever accused these folks of being the brightest bulbs in the batch; they're the ones that WROTE mortgages based on what the borrowers said they made (no-doc mortgages).
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Date: 2008-07-18 08:00 am (UTC)Again, 'No banker left behind' is going strong.
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Date: 2008-07-18 04:33 pm (UTC)Damn, there's a joke in there somewhere! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Foley_scandal).
Sorry, mind's in the gutter this morning.
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Date: 2008-07-19 12:24 am (UTC)Scary stuff about the denial in the Depew article. The news blackout if you're not part of the cyber class is weird. You can still find delayed hints and sonar traces in the newspapers, but it just doesn't make an impact, except to say, "Oh yeah, I read about this in the paper...kinda."
The foreclosure stuff is mindboggling. The article came off a little exagerated in places ("friend of a friend told me it's rainign cats and dogs" stuff), but others sounded like real anecdotes. If it's true, its crazy. Cue the yee-hawww echo.