Quickie econonotes
Jul. 11th, 2008 04:55 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdMassive stock and bonds selloff today; there was a shriekingly temporary pip to positive late in the day on a rumour, that the Fed was going to open some sort of new lending facilities to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It was irrelevant, as they can go to the discount window like everybody else, but no other bailouts are coming. In theory. Also, the dollar fell sharply, as per the previous bear flag commentary. This is a very bad combination of factors.
IndyMac FSB, a major California lender, is now in FDIC receivership. "At the time of closing, IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. had about $1 billion of potentially uninsured deposits held by approximately 10,000 depositors. The FDIC will begin contacting customers with uninsured deposits to arrange an appointment with an FDIC claims agent by Monday. Customers can contact the FDIC for an appointment using the toll-free number above. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend equal to 50 percent of the uninsured amount." Estimates are that paying off insured accounts and handling the bank collapse will run between $4 and $8 billion, which is 7%-14% of FDIC funds. Ignoring inflation, this is the second largest bank failure ever; including it, it's the largest since the S&L collapse in the 1980s. A few more go up like this and we're talking real money.
We're also talking about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going under, and Dr. Roubini at RGE Monitor, who has an exceptionally good track record on this crisis, has a lot to say about that, and the inadvisability of a bailout.
No link, but technically, the market is due for a retrace rally soon, assuming nothing explodes, like, say, Iran. (c.f. All Systems Go for War, and Iran, Israel, and Missiles. $200+/barrel oil, anyone?) Meanwhile, see credit. See credit deflate. See M2 decline. See Phil Gramm make a fool out of himself, embarrassing the McCain campaign.
Meanwhile, over at the CFR, Brad Setzer talks about China as a creditor. Oil spiked up sharply again to near-record levels of last week; demand, regardless of this is expected to continue to rise, due to a large combination of factors including subsidies and the growing Chinese and Indian middle classes. And Dr. Roubini discusses other people now estimating credit losses from the financial crisis to be US$1.6 trillion (with a T).
IndyMac FSB, a major California lender, is now in FDIC receivership. "At the time of closing, IndyMac Bank, F.S.B. had about $1 billion of potentially uninsured deposits held by approximately 10,000 depositors. The FDIC will begin contacting customers with uninsured deposits to arrange an appointment with an FDIC claims agent by Monday. Customers can contact the FDIC for an appointment using the toll-free number above. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend equal to 50 percent of the uninsured amount." Estimates are that paying off insured accounts and handling the bank collapse will run between $4 and $8 billion, which is 7%-14% of FDIC funds. Ignoring inflation, this is the second largest bank failure ever; including it, it's the largest since the S&L collapse in the 1980s. A few more go up like this and we're talking real money.
We're also talking about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going under, and Dr. Roubini at RGE Monitor, who has an exceptionally good track record on this crisis, has a lot to say about that, and the inadvisability of a bailout.
No link, but technically, the market is due for a retrace rally soon, assuming nothing explodes, like, say, Iran. (c.f. All Systems Go for War, and Iran, Israel, and Missiles. $200+/barrel oil, anyone?) Meanwhile, see credit. See credit deflate. See M2 decline. See Phil Gramm make a fool out of himself, embarrassing the McCain campaign.
Meanwhile, over at the CFR, Brad Setzer talks about China as a creditor. Oil spiked up sharply again to near-record levels of last week; demand, regardless of this is expected to continue to rise, due to a large combination of factors including subsidies and the growing Chinese and Indian middle classes. And Dr. Roubini discusses other people now estimating credit losses from the financial crisis to be US$1.6 trillion (with a T).
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Date: 2008-07-12 02:34 am (UTC)no subject
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Date: 2008-07-12 05:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-07-12 05:43 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-07-13 05:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-07-13 05:37 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-07-13 06:57 pm (UTC)le sigh. i have STAPLES in my LEG and SCREWS in my HIP. sorry. i'm still kinda freaking over the amount of metal now in my body. i think i'll never be able to ride a plane again.
ps - sorry about the "reply". i have no clue what i was thinking with that...
no subject
Date: 2008-07-12 12:29 pm (UTC)http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
Frank Barbera and Michael Panzner are worth paying attention to as well. I am glad that the hosts inject humor on occasion as it would all be too grim otherwise.
no subject
Date: 2008-07-12 08:48 pm (UTC)