![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdI don't like making predictions like this, but, super-briefly, here's how I think the rest of this goes down:
On probably Tuesday, the Senate passes the FISA bill as passed by the house, without modifications. The only interesting question will be whether enough Democrats will fly their true colours and give it the majority of the majority, or whether we'll see more action like we did today in the House - get it passed, then a bunch of (D)s vote useless "no" votes to placate their supporters.
On Friday, Mr. Bush signs the bill. That evening, or perhaps over the weekend, Mr. Bush will quietly issue a signing statement declaring that he will interpret Section 102(a) (and by implications amendments to Sections 112(a) and 112(b) of existing law) according to his "interpretation" of the Constitution, by which means he will declare the exclusivity clause void. This will be in line with his current assertion that he can do anything he wants under Section II and that Congress cannot constrain him in any way, a view he has never, ever, disclaimed, and which the Democratic Party-controlled Congress has refused to functionally oppose.
This will mean that this dramatically-expaneded warrantless surveillance programme will simply be a, not the only, method of spying on Americans' communications, and that Mr. Bush retains his claimed power to do whatever the hell he wants, law be damned. The only part of this bill which will be relevant on anything other than a technical level will be the retroactive immunity for the telecommunications companies who directly, specifically, separately, and blatantly violated the law in spying on American citizens on behalf of Mr. Bush's executive branch.
I have still, btw, heard nothing of any commentary coming from Senator Obama's campaign or office. ETA: See next entry.
On probably Tuesday, the Senate passes the FISA bill as passed by the house, without modifications. The only interesting question will be whether enough Democrats will fly their true colours and give it the majority of the majority, or whether we'll see more action like we did today in the House - get it passed, then a bunch of (D)s vote useless "no" votes to placate their supporters.
On Friday, Mr. Bush signs the bill. That evening, or perhaps over the weekend, Mr. Bush will quietly issue a signing statement declaring that he will interpret Section 102(a) (and by implications amendments to Sections 112(a) and 112(b) of existing law) according to his "interpretation" of the Constitution, by which means he will declare the exclusivity clause void. This will be in line with his current assertion that he can do anything he wants under Section II and that Congress cannot constrain him in any way, a view he has never, ever, disclaimed, and which the Democratic Party-controlled Congress has refused to functionally oppose.
This will mean that this dramatically-expaneded warrantless surveillance programme will simply be a, not the only, method of spying on Americans' communications, and that Mr. Bush retains his claimed power to do whatever the hell he wants, law be damned. The only part of this bill which will be relevant on anything other than a technical level will be the retroactive immunity for the telecommunications companies who directly, specifically, separately, and blatantly violated the law in spying on American citizens on behalf of Mr. Bush's executive branch.
I have still, btw, heard nothing of any commentary coming from Senator Obama's campaign or office. ETA: See next entry.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2008-06-20 07:09 pm (UTC)While certainly some members of the Democratic Congress are complicit in the illegal surveillance program (most of all as I see it, Senator Rockefeller and others on the intelligence committee who knew this was going on from the beginning but didn't oppose it), I think most of this is simply political cowardice, with the cynical calculation that the November election is everything and that Obama will be able to roll this back once it can no longer be hung around his neck to make him look weak on national security. The thing is, his general strategy has been to look strong by actually holding firm on a different position. This departs from that and is a disappointing if not surprising development.
Something we can do other than despair? In Washington state, three members (Inslee, McDermott, Larsen) voted the right way. They should be commended and supported. All three Republicans predictably voted the wrong way; there's no one in their party willing to vote the right way, so the key should be to target their seats in 2010 with good Democrats willing to vote the right way. The other three Democrats (Baird, Dicks, and Smith) need to be targeted in the 2010 primary election.
As the saying goes, don't mourn, organize.
no subject
Date: 2008-06-20 08:04 pm (UTC)...none of which matter a damn when the leadership is actively against you and has already stated they won't organise.
We got crushed on the previous bill. That bill had the shameful display of the party leadership claiming to be against it while actually being for it. This one, they're actually endorsing.
I think most of this is simply political cowardice
I can't get there from the reality I see. This is real work by them to make this happen - not to mention repudiation of not only 2006 promises but 2006 pledges about ramming through bills without hearings or opportunity for proper reading and so on. They're not allowing this to happen; they're actively making it happen.
Plus, end of this year, the Democrats are almost certainly going to get substantially larger margins in both House and Senate. You think they're gonna ditch the "leadership" that "led them to victory"?
no subject
Date: 2008-06-20 08:54 pm (UTC)He didn't duck. He's endorsed it. Read that again: Senator Obama has ENDORSED the FISA bill.
Now that's! leadership!