Controlled for demographics, the voting anomaly continues to be present

[solarbird]

People at ScienceBlog and a variety of other statistics-literate sources have been doing demographic analysis on the unpredicted/unpolled Clinton/Obama vote swings in machine-counted vs. hand-counted balloting in Vermont. Controlling for a large number of demographic variables - including such outliers as geography - the variation against polling and against hand-counted ballot remains pretty constant. The calculated statistical probability of this being a random effect is p<.001, which is to say, around 1000:1 against. Further analysis is ongoing.

I would like to see similar analysis applied to the Romney surge, which appears to be comparable at the top level.

ETA: I was in a hurry before and forgot to credit cafiorello for the link. Thanks!

Comments

all wrenches are hammers, too

[angharads-house.livejournal.com]

I had a quick-look at this, and yes, the analysis stands up, at least against the geostatistics tools available here (which can of course be applied to these data: all wrenches will serve as hammers, if need be). I got p(Epm) of .0007, fairly corresponding to your p<.001. Hope more comes out on this....