photography gains ground on reality

[solarbird]

There's a Signpost Up Ahead

2006 is gonna be kinda funky, if Petroleum Review's major oil and gas projects summary is on target. Basically, they think that the major projects calendar CERA is using doesn't take normal projects slippage adequately into account, and as a result, new oil supply points are going to come online at a slower rate - slower enough that we might not just be growing oil supply more slowly than demand, but enough that there could be an actual fall in overall production.

Of course, projects can be rushed, and that's certainly likely to happen if the supply-demand gap gets large enough to send oil prices high enough. But, well, that's kind of a mess under the best of circumstances. And the rest will be made up via demand destruction. Hopefully that will occur in the form of strong energy savings measures, rather than economic contraction.

Personally, it doesn't make me feel any better that all the largest products (both in peak flow rates and total recoverable reserves) are either in central Asia, where we've been losing friends and where China and Russia (who has just demonstrated a happy willingness to use energy politically) are both nearer and stronger, or are in the Persian Gulf area and controlled almost universally by fundamentalist governments of one sort or another - southern Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. And I'd maybe feel a little better about Iraq if the Bush administration hadn't signaled that it's giving up on the last of its good goals a couple of weeks ago, by planning not to ask for any more reconstruction aid to Iraq. I can't decide whether that means a retreat to desert pipeline bases or a simple expectation that whatever Iraqi government gets formed in 2006 will ask us to leave. Now.

Remember all the people talking about how international reputation and what foreigners think of America doesn't matter and shouldn't be taken into consideration? Oh wait, maybe it should. Ah, well, it's a bit late for that now. I sure hope those hydrothermal pilot projects play out well.


Stream by Burke-Gilman Trail

I don't mean that hydrothermal comment sarcastically. Neither is the picture a comment. There's some seriously interesting work - as in, at least one large-scale pilot project - being done on oceanic lower-temperature hydrothermal power generation that would, if successful, throw massive amounts of electrical energy our way. It'd be, aheh, best to live near the coasts, of course, but on the other hand, that's what long-distance transmission lines are for. I'm for 'em! And what I know about them indicates they're the sort of thing that could turn out to be real. I sure hope so. Low-energy societies pretty much suck.

Monday's token miles: 0.5
Tuesday's token miles: 0.3
Wednesday: 3.5 miles (biking!)
Miles out of Hobbiton: 561.2
Miles out of Rivendell: 101.4
Miles to Lothlórien: 365

The best part about the biking - aside from having done it in the winter, which is new ^_^ - is that I biked up the hill without stopping. Go me. I wasn't doing that before the rains, so doing it today - it didn't rain today, so I biked my errands - was kind of strange!

I've got half an essay in my head about the political methods of the Old Left and their adoption by the New Right. But it's not all there yet. It might never be! I dunno.

Now I'm running out of leafpics! Not to worry, though; I've got some mushrooms that you'll like, I hope, and some sky and city pictures that'll make up the bulk of winter posting - maybe enough to call them a series, I'm not sure. Some of them make me very happy. ^_^

Anyway, the next picture above the cut is the first from the November set; the picture below, the last of the October; an alternate take of a leaf previously posted.


Four to Go


A Single Red Leaf on Asphalt (Alternate)

Comments

[llachglin.livejournal.com]

As always, you take beautiful pictures.

I think demand destruction is more likely to come from economic contraction. There are too many structural problems in this economy, from huge deficit spending to massive consumer debt to a housing bubble in certain markets, for the mild expansion of the last few years to continue for long. I'm pretty surprised we've avoided recession as long as we have. So I expect some combination of events will finally tip us that way, and drag a lot of the rest of the world along with us. Any oil production shortfall is likely to be mild--if we're even at peak, we're in the plateau phase and a significant drop-off is unlikely for several years. So recession should take care of any drop-off for this year, and bring along other problems instead.

JHK has a (somewhat hilarious) recent set of predictions for 2006 about peak oil, most of which seem exceedingly alarmist. For example, for the second year, he predicts a stock market crash to the 4000 level. He also bizarrely predicts border skirmishes around Mexican immigration, which says more about his nativist paranoia than anything else. (Anti-immigrant derangement is way too common across the ideological spectrum.) I think events are likely to be more subtle, but still disturbing.

Congratulations on the bike climb up the hill. That must have been tough.

I look forward to your essay about Old Left tactics used by the New Right. I know that a lot of the most influential neocons are old Trotskyites, so it makes sense that some tactics would carry over.

[solarbird]

JHK has a (somewhat hilarious) recent set of predictions for 2006 about peak oil, most of which seem exceedingly alarmist
Yes. He's... easily panicked, I'm afraid. AGH WE'RE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

The weird thing about the hill is that it wasn't all that hard. I mean, it wasn't easy! But... well, maybe I was just well-rested after a couple of months off.

[quen-elf.livejournal.com]

Sounds nice. A lot (read: all) of the 'miracle energy' ideas have turned out not to be, though :( Not just nuclear fusion, but the predictions for massive renewables. Tidal energy, for instance, has the potential to generate fuckloads of electricity around the UK, but it's either turned out to be impractical or too expensive to get serious use any time soon.

I actually like the local renewable energy ideas best. Solar panels for your house or a tiny little wind-generator or both (depending on climate); it won't make a huge proportion of the energy you need but it'll certainly take a load off the grid. There are already products like these and they are getting more practical all the time. Put those into building regulations (also things like larger wind generators for a new apartment block, etc.), apply subsidy, maybe private investment, and we have a big difference.

As well as the renewables there's also the combined heat & power stuff (gas central heating that also generates electricity for you) which is supposedly more efficient, sort of in a similar manner to hybrid cars. I'm not sure whether it really is and er, with the gas situation, maybe this isn't such a fantastic idea :> (Also I think central heating is wasteful anyway, but.)

[solarbird]

The thing about natural gas... the thing about natural gas is that it powers the "green revolution" farming methodologies. In particular, it's how the chemical fertilisers that make it work are made. Without natural gas... bad things happen. Very bad things, given global population.

I really should be paying more attention to the natural gas situation. I really, really should.

[epawtows.livejournal.com]

There's been a bit of progress on wave-power generation, as well (as in, a few prototypes near Scotland that seem to be practical). Not that I'd count on it as a major energy source, but every little bit helps.