interesting translation issues at PEMEX?
Dec. 13th, 2005 11:38 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdI wonder which, if either, of these prediction sets is correct:
English (from the Miami Herald):
Using the higher figures, they're expecting a 6% decline from 2005-2006, a 12% decline from 2006-2007, and a 15% decline from 2007-2008, for an average annual decline rate of 11% over the next three years, with a weighted bias towards the higher end, like you'd expect in an accelerated but otherwise typical decline curve. Using the lower figures, well, yikes.
The typical predicted decline rate the US oil companies use in a post-peak well is around 5%. I offer this by means of comparison. The good figures are disturbing in and of themselves.
ETA: If I'm reading this translated Spanish right, it appears that the better-case numbers were released by PEMEX in response to the leaking of a research document from within PEMEX showing the worse-case numbers as the most likely path. The question of which is more accurate remains open. Did PEMEX have other research groups saying the situation was less bad?
English (from the Miami Herald):
Pemex's Cantarell offshore oil field, which accounts for about 60 percent of oil production, is forecast to produce 1.9 million barrels a day in 2006, a 6 percent decline from 2.03 million barrels a day so far in 2005, Pemex said in an e-mailed statement.Spanish (from the Mexican newspaper Reforma):
Pemex forecasts Cantarell will produce 1.68 million barrels per day in 2007 and 1.43 million barrels daily in 2008. The decline in Cantarell's production will be made up with investments in other oil fields, including Ku-Maloob-Zaap, Crudo Ligero Marino and Complejo Bermúdez, Pemex said.
En el informe se estima que Cantarell produzca, de los 2 millones de barriles al día actualmente, a 1.7 millones b/d en promedio en 2006, a 1.1 millones b/d en el 2007 y 800 mil b/d en 2008, hasta llegar a producir tan solo 500 mil barriles para inicios del año 2009.The English-language figures indicate a significantly sharper drop than previously anticipated; they've been doing gas-injection since 1997 to get output rates up. Now they're getting significant gas intrusions into producing wells, with corresponding drops in production rates.
Babelfish translation: In the report esteem that Cantarell produces, of the 2 million barrels to the day at the moment, to 1.7 million b/d in average in 2006, to 1.1 million b/d in 2007 and 800 thousands b/d in 2008, until getting to produce so single 500 thousand barrels for beginnings of year 2009.
Using the higher figures, they're expecting a 6% decline from 2005-2006, a 12% decline from 2006-2007, and a 15% decline from 2007-2008, for an average annual decline rate of 11% over the next three years, with a weighted bias towards the higher end, like you'd expect in an accelerated but otherwise typical decline curve. Using the lower figures, well, yikes.
The typical predicted decline rate the US oil companies use in a post-peak well is around 5%. I offer this by means of comparison. The good figures are disturbing in and of themselves.
ETA: If I'm reading this translated Spanish right, it appears that the better-case numbers were released by PEMEX in response to the leaking of a research document from within PEMEX showing the worse-case numbers as the most likely path. The question of which is more accurate remains open. Did PEMEX have other research groups saying the situation was less bad?
