I can't find something
Dec. 9th, 2005 10:45 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdIn his most recent Clusterfuck Nation, James Kunstler made the following statement:
I can also find all sorts of notice about how the British government has gone rather sharply into planning for an import-driven fuels situation, and that even the situation as I'm finding it has suddenly hit home - they're expecting to be a fuels importer by 2007 now - but I can't find that 50% year-to-year on North Sea crude.
This actually matters, because the North Sea fields have historically been well-managed with very modern, very up-to-date drilling technologies. The fact that they went into early and rapid decline (17% year-to-year as of September, iirc - that's pretty dramatic by itself) is interesting in and of itself. If that curve maintains, it could suggest that the question over whether advanced drilling technologies being used now really increase the total OOIP recovery significantly or whether they just help extract the usual amount of recoverable oil more quickly might be being answered in a way that is not particularly comforting.
A 50% year-to-year drop in actual production not due to external difficulties, on the other hand, would be less a suggestion, and more a rather sharply-worded communique that includes the phrase, "oh fuck." But I'm having a stupidly difficult time finding any indication of that. I'm thinking he may have misread the vs-1999-prediction information as year-to-year; I found one article in particular that's very confusedly written and could be misread in that way. I've asked him where he got that; he's on a trip right now and could only provide the URL of the energy bulletin website where he read it.
Kunstler is a crank, but he's usually a crank with good references - and his monthly architecture column has historically been pretty funny. I'd like to figure out where he got this. If I can't find it, I'll write him back next week and see what, if anything, I get.
A Single Red Leaf on Asphalt
Have two imperfect pictures of the late season market down at the shops. I'm not entirely happy with either. The first one almost works, but doesn't quite; I think it's because of the person in the black-and-white sweater. I shot several shots, but just kept having people problems:
Market Peppers (1)
This one also has a person-problem; the worker in the white T-shirt kept being in one bad place after another. This was the best of the lot:
Market Peppers (2)
But at least you know the seafood is good:
It's Troll-Caught!
North Sea and Alaskan oil fields have passed their production peaks and are depleting at phenomenal rates -- in the case of Great Britain's fields, up to 50 percent a yearNow, I can find various indicators demonstrating that North Sea production has declined at much faster rates than expected, and that current production is nearly 50% below predictions made back in 1999, but I can't find anything indicating a year-to-year of around 50%.
I can also find all sorts of notice about how the British government has gone rather sharply into planning for an import-driven fuels situation, and that even the situation as I'm finding it has suddenly hit home - they're expecting to be a fuels importer by 2007 now - but I can't find that 50% year-to-year on North Sea crude.
This actually matters, because the North Sea fields have historically been well-managed with very modern, very up-to-date drilling technologies. The fact that they went into early and rapid decline (17% year-to-year as of September, iirc - that's pretty dramatic by itself) is interesting in and of itself. If that curve maintains, it could suggest that the question over whether advanced drilling technologies being used now really increase the total OOIP recovery significantly or whether they just help extract the usual amount of recoverable oil more quickly might be being answered in a way that is not particularly comforting.
A 50% year-to-year drop in actual production not due to external difficulties, on the other hand, would be less a suggestion, and more a rather sharply-worded communique that includes the phrase, "oh fuck." But I'm having a stupidly difficult time finding any indication of that. I'm thinking he may have misread the vs-1999-prediction information as year-to-year; I found one article in particular that's very confusedly written and could be misread in that way. I've asked him where he got that; he's on a trip right now and could only provide the URL of the energy bulletin website where he read it.
Kunstler is a crank, but he's usually a crank with good references - and his monthly architecture column has historically been pretty funny. I'd like to figure out where he got this. If I can't find it, I'll write him back next week and see what, if anything, I get.
A Single Red Leaf on Asphalt
Have two imperfect pictures of the late season market down at the shops. I'm not entirely happy with either. The first one almost works, but doesn't quite; I think it's because of the person in the black-and-white sweater. I shot several shots, but just kept having people problems:
Market Peppers (1)
This one also has a person-problem; the worker in the white T-shirt kept being in one bad place after another. This was the best of the lot:
Market Peppers (2)
But at least you know the seafood is good:
It's Troll-Caught!
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 06:50 pm (UTC)Market Pepper- The mixture of the wonderful colors w/ the bustle of people. I like the 1/2 person in the front- really adds something to the picture. Gives it depth.
Market Peppers (2)- I wish the guy would maybe have stepped more to your right.
This one looks like it's panaramic. Does your camera do that? or did you cut it?
It's Troll-Caught! - HAHAHAHAHA. Those moments are precious! It's even more precious when you can catch them on "film"!
Where was the market?
I realllllly appreciate you sharing your pictures!!
no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 07:29 pm (UTC)Yeah, she was intentional - I just wish that stupid black and white sweater wasn't there. :-p
Market Peppers (2)- I wish the guy would maybe have stepped more to your right.
Or left probably would have been okay too. I took several shots, this was the best of the set. Sometimes you just don't get the shot.
This one looks like it's panaramic. Does your camera do that? or did you cut it?
I play fast-and-loose with the crop tool all the time.
Where was the market?
Our house is halfway between two shopping clusters: downtown Kenmore and the Lake Forest Park Town Centre. LFPTC isn't really a downtown in any traditional sense - Lake Forest Park really doesn't have a downtown, it has more a single-owner hybrid mall and shopping centre with police, fire department, and tiny city hall next door. However, LFPTC hosts a farmer's market on weekends in summer and early autumn.
Kenmore's downtown, of course, is a mess, thanks partly to 522 destroying the old main street, partly to King County not caring, and partly to Kenmore not incorporating until 1996(!), even though it goes back to 1906 or somesuch. However, a comprehensive downtown plan finally exists, along with zoning to make it happen, and a huge chunk of city-owned land in the core of downtown (over nine acres!) is hopefully about to get developed out - they're taking proposals from developers now. It'll be a little forced because it'll all be built in the same era - they're talking 2007-2008 timeframe - but even that will be worlds better than the current abandoned Metro Park-and-Ride (it got moved to a better location) and badly-placed bought-by-the-city-for-back-taxes autotopian shopping mall.
(Said mall isn't empty - in fact, it's actually full. When the city bought it, it was almost empty. They took over management and have been signing short-term leases to bring money in to the city while the previously-mentioned downtown plan could be put together.)
Hm, this is getting long, isn't it? Anyway, pro-Downtown Plan candidates swept last November's elections, and it was kind of a referendum on said plan, so that's all yay. I'm looking forward to it.
But none of that has to do with the question of the market. The market's in the other direction. (Tho' Lake Forest Park has been watching Kenmore plan stuff and has just started the process of seeing how to turn LFP TC into a proper downtown as well. That'd be nice too. ^_^ )
no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 08:41 pm (UTC)no subject
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Date: 2005-12-09 07:02 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 09:18 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 09:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 09:35 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 07:38 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 07:49 pm (UTC)The people wouldn't be a problem if they'd just stand in the right places. So frustrating!
no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 08:37 pm (UTC)I think Kunstler just got excited and made a mistake. I don't think he's dishonest, but he sometimes gets carried away. Maybe he read or heard 15% and it became 50% in his memory. Still, that's sloppy of him. His eyesore of the month for December is actually, for once, not an eyesore but a set of pictures depicting the kind of urban development he's actually in favor of. I'd like it if he did more of that, because ultimately providing positive examples of change is more helpful than sounding the warning bells, and could help minimize the crank factor.
I also don't get what's funny about "troll-caught." Fishing is where the term "trolling" comes from, after all. The association with trolls under the bridge is secondary.
no subject
Date: 2005-12-09 09:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-12-10 06:44 am (UTC)Thanks - that's the kind of shot I used to take for screen backgrounds occasionally. I have a few of them, still.
I think Kunstler just got excited and made a mistake.
That's my working assumption too. I'm not accusing him of dishonesty here, I think he just read something wrong.
I don't think he's dishonest, but he sometimes gets carried away.
That's where the crank starts to come in. He really does. Sometimes, that's very funny, like in architecture, where he can get a really good rant going. I appreciate a good rant. ^_^
Maybe he read or heard 15% and it became 50% in his memory. Still, that's sloppy of him.
Or maybe it's not, and I just haven't found it yet. That's the thing: I don't know.
no subject
Date: 2005-12-10 04:47 am (UTC)By real trolls?
Hey, what's wrong with that?
Date: 2005-12-10 05:36 am (UTC)I've always enjoyed that style of pepper display.
Re: Hey, what's wrong with that?
Date: 2005-12-10 06:41 am (UTC)Whereas for me, it was the first thing I thought of. And I went hee hee hee hee HEE hee hee hee hee hee hee, like Scooby Doo.
I've always enjoyed that style of pepper display.
It was so cool. Really amazing colour and shapes. Next year I'll probably give in and buy one. ^_^