getting back into shape

One of the problems with studio work is that your performance skills get flabby. They really do, and it’s a little disturbing how flabby they can get how quickly. So this week is all about getting back into shape for the Everett show (Everett Marina, 1pm) coming up on the 4th of July. There are a few songs I won’t want to play at a 4th of July show, but I’ve got plenty of new ones to make up for it – I’m getting some old traditionals back into shape, for example.

I have no idea of playlist order yet. I’m leaning towards two longish sets of vocal pieces and a small set in the middle of instrumentals. How’s that sound to you?

I should go to bed now. Oh, my intent in releasing Shout at the Desert was to get a new song out there for the show. So if you didn’t play it last week, here it is again:

And it’s just turned Canada Day. Happy Canada Day, everybody!

• 

Mirrored from Crime and the Blog of Evil.

Bear market? Unemployment's the tipper

As of this morning, the S&P500's peak for the year is 120% of current index - but that's only a 17% drop from peak. Some people are already declaring this an official bear market, partly on the former number, but the latter number is what you need to declare a bear market more or less "official." (A 20% decline - the definition - is not the same as the peak being 120% of your current value. 120/100 = 1.20, 100/120 = 0.83.)

This is on a combination of bad news over the last few days; today's report that initial jobless claims rose in the face of an expected decline, May's already-reported but collapse in home sales, and the ISM's report of a substantial slowdown in the rate of manufacturing growth. Yesterday's ADP report only 13,000 private-sector jobs were added last month - in the face of much higher expectations (consensus estimate 60k; lowest estimate 25k)- helped set the stage.

You need +150k to keep up with population growth, by the way.

In related news, US Senate Republicans successfully filibustered the latest renewal of extended unemployment benefits, this time, in a standalone bill. Democrats expect to try again when a replacement for Senator Byrd is appointed, but right now, 1-2 million unemployed people will fall off extended/emergency unemployment coverage in the next couple of weeks.

I missed this story on CBC Money a few weeks ago, but please note that Canadian farmers are facing a debt crisis unseen since ever, mostly due to rising costs. There's a very unhappy chart showing the situation over the last decade, and it's reaching a tipping point. The situation varies wildly by province, so check the charts.

Most US state budgets, meanwhile, have collapsed, with Federal stimulus aid running out and not being replaced.

The GM headline figure triggering a market recovery mid-morning ("US June sales rise 10.7%") sounds really good until you remember that GM was bankrupt in June last year, and Calculated Risk says the numbers are actually "very weak."

I'd do more, but I'm in practice mode for the show on Sunday. Good luck out there.

Okay I have to post this

Okay, retail? Retail is stupid money. HEY, RETAIL INVESTORS ACTING LIKE THIS! YEAH, YOU. YOU'RE THE GUYS THEY RIP OFF. DON'T KNOW WHO THE SUCKER AT THE TABLE IS? THAT MEANS IT'S YOU. I mean damn, people:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Individual investors increased their holdings of stocks in June ... Investors held 52.9% of assets in stocks and stock funds, up 1.9 percentage points from May and compared to the historical average of 60%, according to a survey by AAII.

If it takes you six months to notice a stock trend? DON'T BE IN STOCKS.

I need some sort of banging-head-against-wall icon.

Shit I don't like

Good morning, Scotland, England, Wales, and both Irelands. A few late-night worries here in Cascadia for your early-morning displeasure; in other words, welcome to another episode of Shit I Don't Like, staring me, and featuring shit I don't like.

I don't like what happened in gold today. Also silver.

I don't like what happened in the equities markets today.

I don't like what happened in the US dollar index today.

I don't like what happened to the Euro/USD trade today.

I don't like what happened in oil today.

I don't like Alan Greenspan's brief moment of truth on CNBC today. Or, rather, I do; I don't like what he said.

I really don't like what's going on with the Swiss Franc.

Gold is down sharply, suddenly, hard. I don't understand the gold market, I don't care about it, I think it's stupid, but I pay attention to all the people who think it is money even though they like pretending it's still Renaissance Europe, because they matter. I don't like that silver shot down too, even harder. Silver is gold for people who can't afford to fiddle with gold, which is to say, quick margin calls, undercapitalised investors, and fringies - in short, it's gold for morons. If you're betting on silver as money you're not just betting a return to the gold standard, you're betting on a return to specie. Good luck with that. But bear with me.

I don't like what happened, particularly, in equities. Six straight days of losses and a Dow Theory bear-market indicating that we never actually exited the 2007 bear? Not awesome.

I don't like the USD index falling, in all this context. Correlations aren't correlating.

I don't like the Euro rising and being a lot of that US dollar index move.

I don't like oil's kick in the pants. Sure, the noisemakers said it's all manufacturing, but I think that's bullshit.

I don't like Alan Greenspan getting into lecture-to-acolyte mode on CNBC in an extended interview and settling into lecture mode and getting a pop question about Europe and answering without his usual filters for a minute before he has time go reset to public mode and try to pad it. "Oh, Europe is terrible," in that kind of body language and tone that says it's really bad - just for a moment, then popping back to hedge talk.

Because Europe's Euro problem is terrible. Really bad. And all this put together looked like a lot of people going to liquidity - going to cash - in Europe. The Euro spikes because somebody's buying a lot of it because somebody is pulling in resources... why? I've got some guesses, and I bet you do too.

And meanwhile, the Swiss Franc just keeps rising. Not so much July 1, it actually dipped a bit and there's a very interesting midday spike, but it's recovered pretty well.

So. A bunch of people in the Eurozone have been going to Switzerland. That's neat. Why do you go to Switzerland? You go to Switzerland for conferences and to ski. Not relevant! Why else do you go to Switzerland? You go to Switzerland for cookoo clocks and watches and maybe chocolate. Tasty! But also not relevant. You used to go for banking privacy, but not as much anymore. Why else do you go to Switzerland?

You go to Switzerland when you need stability and a place to hide things, including yourself. You go to Switzerland when things are going to hell.

Things feel brittle. If the job report is merely as bad as forecast, or slightly worse, we should get a broad stock bounce. We're about at a level where we should - I know, I know, I keep saying that, but it's true, I swear. If it's substantially worse, things could get ugly.

And that's Shit I Don't Like for 1 July 2010. Good luck.