May. 9th, 2010

solarbird: (Default)
Good evening, Cascadia; good morning, Europe; 今日は日本。

The Euro is up sharply in response to ECB actions announced this morning to provide support. Or that's the headline story, anyway. It's a massive pool of money; €750B, or nearly US$1T. Hidden in it is another €440 in support for European banks in trouble. The UK is in on the game too, but not exactly on their own accord, and this will explode:
Euro-zone leaders are attempting to get round objections from countries such as Britain by invoking Article 122 of the Lisbon Treaty, intended to enable a collective response to natural disasters. This does not need unanimous agreement.

By doing so, Mr Sarkozy has ensured a speedy confrontation with a new British prime minister and other leaders of non-euro currency countries. All 27 EU finance ministers must be present, but because decision will be taken by qualified majority vote, the 16 euro zone leaders can ensure its passage...

Officials and diplomats have confirmed that Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, was the last non-eurozone leader to be telephoned on Friday night by José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, his Spanish oppositer number, to be warned about the EU plan.
That they're willing to push this through in this kind of oh. my. god. way means this shit's serious.

But that's only part of it. We still don't know exactly what Thursday meant, but the crash-era dollar swap programme is back, with the EU, UK, and Bank of Canada, and separately, the Bank of Japan is reopening their dollar swap line.

Interestingly, since the big gap up at the open, the Euro/USD ratio hasn't moved substantively. Some holders bought into the spike, the Euro drifted down for a few hours, got bought back up, and is just kinda chillin' this morning. The dollar index spiked down on opening action but has been climbing back up ever since, which is... not a good indicator for the US stock markets in the morning, lately. (There's been a pretty tight inverse correlation between rising DIX and falling markets as of late. It's not 100%, but it's solid.)

CNBC is running special programming tonight, "Is Your Money Safe?" Secondhand, I'm told they're all calling bottoms, which is lulzy - this isn't even technically a full correction (10% from local high) yet and they're in full-panic-soothing mode.

The US dollar index has fallen again and the Euro has finally managed to reclaim its Monday open high. Overnight US stock futures are through the ceiling. Good luck on Monday.

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