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i remember when these used to have themes
Dec. 10th, 2008 10:12 pmGood evening. Remember when 1% was considered a big move in equities and stuff wouldn't happen for a day or two or even a week? Yeah, I do too. That's when these had themes and I wrote little mini-essays sometimes on single topics. Ah, well. Maybe again someday.
Minyanville's Kevin Depew has an article on the Federal Reserve Bank's actions w.r.t. issuing its own debt. On page two of that article is the latest in their long-running series on attitude change prompted by economic implosion; recommended. You're also seeing a return of local currencies in several cities. This is something fourth generation warfare researchers support, by the way, as a locally stabilising factor in the event of major crisis. They tend to pop up in bad economic times. Mostly, they don't last.
Stock indices bounced off the same moving average trendline that I pointed out last post for the third straight day. Stocks are still in "oversold" territory, however, so at least a fourth attempt will almost certainly be made tomorrow. Still, real news matters more thanfake news technicals, and Mish's economic potpourri for the 10th includes projections of a 1% drop in consumer spending in 2009, the worst result since 1942, along with projections of S&P 500 lows going down as far as 400 some time after this bear market rally.
The Baltic Dry Index - which rose a little today, heading back up into the upper-600s - does not lie: Brad Setzer has hard numbers on shrinking global trade. The Economist's story on this is atypically dire and shows the breakdown is in all sectors with all regions. The Wall Street Journal reports major cutbacks by trucking and other freight hauling companies.
In get-your-rage-on news, semi-nationalised insurer AIG wants Another US$10 Billion in taxpayer money from the Federal government. Why? More bad investments. Meanwhile, they just keep looting the company, with individual upper management "retention" payouts now reaching US$4 million. And the auto bailout programme could trigger a whole new set of credit-default swap payouts.
Over in government instrument news, two months into Fiscal Year 2009, and the US budget deficit has already broken US$400 Billion with a B. And the Treasuries situation is being described routinely now as a bubble; watch out for that popping soon. The dollar is establishing a trendline down towards 85, and appears to be likely to test its mid-November recent lows; the current actual Fed Funds Rate at the discount window is .12%, not even close to the 1.00 target.
Finally, at the local level, Goldman Sachs is recommending credit-default swaps against several US states. That's fun! Too bad you can't use local currencies to pay taxes, ne?
Minyanville's Kevin Depew has an article on the Federal Reserve Bank's actions w.r.t. issuing its own debt. On page two of that article is the latest in their long-running series on attitude change prompted by economic implosion; recommended. You're also seeing a return of local currencies in several cities. This is something fourth generation warfare researchers support, by the way, as a locally stabilising factor in the event of major crisis. They tend to pop up in bad economic times. Mostly, they don't last.
Stock indices bounced off the same moving average trendline that I pointed out last post for the third straight day. Stocks are still in "oversold" territory, however, so at least a fourth attempt will almost certainly be made tomorrow. Still, real news matters more than
The Baltic Dry Index - which rose a little today, heading back up into the upper-600s - does not lie: Brad Setzer has hard numbers on shrinking global trade. The Economist's story on this is atypically dire and shows the breakdown is in all sectors with all regions. The Wall Street Journal reports major cutbacks by trucking and other freight hauling companies.
In get-your-rage-on news, semi-nationalised insurer AIG wants Another US$10 Billion in taxpayer money from the Federal government. Why? More bad investments. Meanwhile, they just keep looting the company, with individual upper management "retention" payouts now reaching US$4 million. And the auto bailout programme could trigger a whole new set of credit-default swap payouts.
Over in government instrument news, two months into Fiscal Year 2009, and the US budget deficit has already broken US$400 Billion with a B. And the Treasuries situation is being described routinely now as a bubble; watch out for that popping soon. The dollar is establishing a trendline down towards 85, and appears to be likely to test its mid-November recent lows; the current actual Fed Funds Rate at the discount window is .12%, not even close to the 1.00 target.
Finally, at the local level, Goldman Sachs is recommending credit-default swaps against several US states. That's fun! Too bad you can't use local currencies to pay taxes, ne?
