Jan. 16th, 2008

solarbird: (not_in_the_mood)
People at ScienceBlog and a variety of other statistics-literate sources have been doing demographic analysis on the unpredicted/unpolled Clinton/Obama vote swings in machine-counted vs. hand-counted balloting in Vermont. Controlling for a large number of demographic variables - including such outliers as geography - the variation against polling and against hand-counted ballot remains pretty constant. The calculated statistical probability of this being a random effect is p<.001, which is to say, around 1000:1 against. Further analysis is ongoing.

I would like to see similar analysis applied to the Romney surge, which appears to be comparable at the top level.

ETA: I was in a hurry before and forgot to credit [livejournal.com profile] cafiorello for the link. Thanks!
solarbird: (Default)
I hate to link to DailyKOS, but it's now admitted - not alleged, admitted - that the White House deleted literally millions of pieces of email that were supposed to be preserved, and dismantled - intentionally - the archiving system, and recorded over the tape backups of mail servers, which would have been incomplete, but would have been better. Here's the press release from an organisation suing over all this:
The deletion of millions of email beginning in March 2003 coupled with the White House’s destruction of back-up copies of those deleted email mean that there are no back-up copies of emails deleted during the period March 2003 through October 2003. The significance of this time-period cannot be overstated: the U.S. went to war with Iraq, top White House officials leaked the covert identity of Valerie Plame Wilson and the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into their actions.

[...]

Anne Weismann, chief counsel to CREW, said today, “With this new filing, the White House has admitted that although it has long known about the missing emails, it did nothing to recover them, or discover how and why they went missing in the first place. The missing emails are important historical records that belong not to the Bush administration, but to the American people. As a result, the public deserves a full accounting and hopefully, now that the matter is before a federal court, we will get one.”
We'll see about that last bit. So far, Congress isn't even pressing contempt charges against refusal to submit to subpoena. (Remember that? Harriet Miers, Joshua Bolten? Subpoenaed by Congress, ordered by Mr. Bush not to show up, and didn't? Just plain refused to appear? And Congress did... nothing?) Refusal to keep and present records and evidence is much less of an insult, though much worse in reality.

I'm not sure why I'm posting this, other than I saw [livejournal.com profile] jwz mention it, and immediately thought of the ignored subpoenas sitting around, unenforced.

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