solarbird | May. 17th, 2007

OPEC sees no need to raise production this summer, unlike usual, despite near-record prices. Similarly, a week ago, Saudi Arabia said they saw no need to raise production past 2009. A variety of sources have stated that Saudi Arabia will not be capable of raising its output past 12.5m bpd, political assurances to the contrary aside. There is also the secondary but non-dismissable problem of increasing Saudi domestic demand, subsidised, which naturally cuts into exports.

(Note that the last link refers to a 2006 set of graphs; the production numbers on those graphs have so far proven somewhat optimistic, and Saudi production did not reached the projected 2006 numbers, and is not on target to reach the projected 2007 numbers. Of course, that doesn't stop people from writing headlines like "Saudi production to hit 16m bpd" based on a UK oil consultancy company saying that Saudi Aramco could hit that by 2025.)

As I've made a bit of a habit of saying - though possibly not as much as I should have, being distracted by the fundamentalist movement and university work - I believe we have a rather sharply limited amount of time before this issue becomes rather critical, and I strongly urge that people work locally to affect zoning and development codes to end automobile-only developments. Most housing development in the United States has been, and continues to be, car-only; if you don't have a car, you can't get to any of the things you need. Things are a bit better up here in Cascadia, but not nearly as better as they could be. This situation is encouraged, not discouraged, by government, at this point mostly as a legacy of 60+ years of automobile-focused zoning and subsidies, most of which continue to exist. From a development standpoint, there appears to be little little time left (years, not decades) to make real adjustments to this model before disruptive problems arise.

On an individual level, of course, I mostly have to say what I've been saying for the last couple of years: if you are carbound, move. Go someplace you won't be. Be within walking distance of high-occurence, high-reliability, flexible transit, and within walking distance of many things you need and enjoy. I also recommend biking, it should be a nice summer for it - but only places where you can safely do so, of course, which limits many peoples' options.

Incidentally, the Deutsche Bank analyst projections of possible outright gasoline shortages in North America - as well as Matthew Simmons's comments to the same effect - are refinery-issue based more than crude-supply based, per sé. But they should be noted as a temporary (if significant) inconvenience.