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How it's going to go down
Nov. 5th, 2004 12:35 amSo here's how I think it's going to go down, and what we can do about it in the next two years.
Next year, we get judges. Lots and lots of Thomas/Scalia-style judges. One in the Supreme Court, of course, but a lot at the lower levels as well. Thomas and Scalia both voted for gayfolk being criminal in nature, the last time they had a chance to do so. I believe they will again, given the opportunity. So will other judges out of their mold. Democrats will run interference, but not on our behalf; they'll do it for abortion rights. We'll gain some benefit from that, but it won't be enough. President Bush will be smart and selective about his nominees, and he'll get the kinds of judges he wants more often than not.
The year after that (2006) will be the next run of the FMA. It'll be used to whip up with the vote for the midterms. It may pass out of Congress. If it does, we're fucked. 38 states need to affirm it, and they only need to do so by bare majorities - some legislatively, some by votes. That sounds like a lot, but two years after anti-gay amendments went 13 for 13 - not all the votes were held on Tuesday - the states won't think twice. And it will be a version that bans both marriage and civil unions.
So once the FMA passes - not guaranteed, but not at all unlikely - marriage and domestic partnership hopes go away everywhere, for a long time. And worse, so does the Constitutional basis for overturning Bowers vs. Hardwick, because we'll be an excluded class. (The legal term is strangers to the law.) Our status before the law will be Constitutionally unequal, rather than simply not addressed.
What needs to happen between now and then is this:
If you have relatives in the red states, or good friends, and you're not out to them, you no longer have that luxury.
If you're in a red state, and you're not out, you no longer have that luxury either.
A lot of us used to live in red states. We moved to blue states, where it's safer, where there are more jobs, where we're more likely to find partners. Most of us can't move back, of course. But some of us never came out to friends - or more importantly, family - back home. I did. But lots - and I do mean lots - of people I know didn't.
Being in the closet over the last several years has probably made lives easier for a lot of people. But we're in a war that can no longer be avoided or ignored, and as James Dobson of Focus on the Family put it today on his radio show, evangelical conservatives have "won the most important battle." They have the Presidency, they have Congress, and they're about to have the courts.
They are in charge, and they are more than looking forward to making sure we know it. Again, as Dobson said, they see this election result as a reprieve from God, and they're not going to be told to wait around until later again.
Worst of all, red state voters have mostly made up their minds, and there's not a lot of effective convincing left to do for most of us; it has never been easy under the best of circumstances. I honestly don't think, for the most part, that there's anything people can do - unless you have another kind of emotional inroad, something to get past the automatic reactions, something to make them actually listen to you when you try to tell them why destroying gay families is bad.
That can mean being a daughter or a son.
That can mean being an old friend.
If you value your families, if you value your identity, if you value your right to live with your partner - if you value being able to travel freely in your own country without fear of arrest...
...you have to make your case with family and friends back home.
And for most of you, if not all of you, that'll only work if you come out. That's what it'll take to reframe the debate. That's what it'll have to be to have any chance of making any headway at all on this issue. You have to get them on your - and hence, our - side, and then you have to hope they'll fight on your behalf - that they'll fight for their family.
You have to hope that they'll fight because now they know it's about you.
It's a long shot, but it's all we've got left. We have no more time, we have no more options; closets are a faux safety and a luxury we can no longer afford. Evangelical conservatives want your head on a platter, and if you're counting on the Democrats to save us, think again; they may not even stand in the way after this election.
Hell, they may even help. According to Salon, Bill Clinton told Senator Kerry to sacrifice us; that he'd pick up swing-state voters by endorsing the 11 anti-gay initiatives on the ballot this election. Kerry, to his credit, didn't. It cost him dearly, and I doubt the Democrats will make that decision twice.
If you stay in the closet now, you are part of the problem.
No excuses. No exceptions. Come out to your red-state family and friends, and make your case. Make it personal.
It's just about all we have left.
Next year, we get judges. Lots and lots of Thomas/Scalia-style judges. One in the Supreme Court, of course, but a lot at the lower levels as well. Thomas and Scalia both voted for gayfolk being criminal in nature, the last time they had a chance to do so. I believe they will again, given the opportunity. So will other judges out of their mold. Democrats will run interference, but not on our behalf; they'll do it for abortion rights. We'll gain some benefit from that, but it won't be enough. President Bush will be smart and selective about his nominees, and he'll get the kinds of judges he wants more often than not.
The year after that (2006) will be the next run of the FMA. It'll be used to whip up with the vote for the midterms. It may pass out of Congress. If it does, we're fucked. 38 states need to affirm it, and they only need to do so by bare majorities - some legislatively, some by votes. That sounds like a lot, but two years after anti-gay amendments went 13 for 13 - not all the votes were held on Tuesday - the states won't think twice. And it will be a version that bans both marriage and civil unions.
So once the FMA passes - not guaranteed, but not at all unlikely - marriage and domestic partnership hopes go away everywhere, for a long time. And worse, so does the Constitutional basis for overturning Bowers vs. Hardwick, because we'll be an excluded class. (The legal term is strangers to the law.) Our status before the law will be Constitutionally unequal, rather than simply not addressed.
What needs to happen between now and then is this:
If you have relatives in the red states, or good friends, and you're not out to them, you no longer have that luxury.
If you're in a red state, and you're not out, you no longer have that luxury either.
A lot of us used to live in red states. We moved to blue states, where it's safer, where there are more jobs, where we're more likely to find partners. Most of us can't move back, of course. But some of us never came out to friends - or more importantly, family - back home. I did. But lots - and I do mean lots - of people I know didn't.
Being in the closet over the last several years has probably made lives easier for a lot of people. But we're in a war that can no longer be avoided or ignored, and as James Dobson of Focus on the Family put it today on his radio show, evangelical conservatives have "won the most important battle." They have the Presidency, they have Congress, and they're about to have the courts.
They are in charge, and they are more than looking forward to making sure we know it. Again, as Dobson said, they see this election result as a reprieve from God, and they're not going to be told to wait around until later again.
Worst of all, red state voters have mostly made up their minds, and there's not a lot of effective convincing left to do for most of us; it has never been easy under the best of circumstances. I honestly don't think, for the most part, that there's anything people can do - unless you have another kind of emotional inroad, something to get past the automatic reactions, something to make them actually listen to you when you try to tell them why destroying gay families is bad.
That can mean being a daughter or a son.
That can mean being an old friend.
If you value your families, if you value your identity, if you value your right to live with your partner - if you value being able to travel freely in your own country without fear of arrest...
...you have to make your case with family and friends back home.
And for most of you, if not all of you, that'll only work if you come out. That's what it'll take to reframe the debate. That's what it'll have to be to have any chance of making any headway at all on this issue. You have to get them on your - and hence, our - side, and then you have to hope they'll fight on your behalf - that they'll fight for their family.
You have to hope that they'll fight because now they know it's about you.
It's a long shot, but it's all we've got left. We have no more time, we have no more options; closets are a faux safety and a luxury we can no longer afford. Evangelical conservatives want your head on a platter, and if you're counting on the Democrats to save us, think again; they may not even stand in the way after this election.
Hell, they may even help. According to Salon, Bill Clinton told Senator Kerry to sacrifice us; that he'd pick up swing-state voters by endorsing the 11 anti-gay initiatives on the ballot this election. Kerry, to his credit, didn't. It cost him dearly, and I doubt the Democrats will make that decision twice.
If you stay in the closet now, you are part of the problem.
No excuses. No exceptions. Come out to your red-state family and friends, and make your case. Make it personal.
It's just about all we have left.
