Bad news for the the Get Lucky scenario
Feb. 16th, 2022 04:12 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdFrom the Seattle Times yesterday:
Notice that 2.4% Delta peeking in? Delta's been at basically 0% for a bit. Not forever, but a bit.
Combine with this unfortunate (but small-numbers) study indicating that unvaccinated people who get omicron don't have the expected/hoped for immunoreaction to previous strains and you've got bad news for Get Lucky.
The story is very different if you were vaccinated already, of course. Nice immune response jump.
But I had written that that if we got lucky we might have a mass - if extremely shitty - pseudo-vaccination of the unvaccinated, via omicron.
That at very least, we'd have good groundwork for resistance.
But, well.
If the numbers from this small study hold up... then... I guess not. No Get Lucky scenario for us.
And what that's going to mean, given that we know there's a Delta reserve hanging around out there, is a brief return to lows followed by everybody shrugging off containment measures followed by Delta II: Even Deltier.
Goddammit.
Notice that 2.4% Delta peeking in? Delta's been at basically 0% for a bit. Not forever, but a bit.
Combine with this unfortunate (but small-numbers) study indicating that unvaccinated people who get omicron don't have the expected/hoped for immunoreaction to previous strains and you've got bad news for Get Lucky.
The story is very different if you were vaccinated already, of course. Nice immune response jump.
But I had written that that if we got lucky we might have a mass - if extremely shitty - pseudo-vaccination of the unvaccinated, via omicron.
That at very least, we'd have good groundwork for resistance.
But, well.
If the numbers from this small study hold up... then... I guess not. No Get Lucky scenario for us.
And what that's going to mean, given that we know there's a Delta reserve hanging around out there, is a brief return to lows followed by everybody shrugging off containment measures followed by Delta II: Even Deltier.
Goddammit.
no subject
Date: 2022-02-17 05:03 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2022-02-17 06:48 am (UTC)If it doesn't, then we need either a vaccine sequence which will protect us against those who refuse to take it - no, I mean it, as in, their participation doesn't have to matter to us - or it just goes until we get a shitty version of resistance through... you know. However many it takes.