on the (dis)united kingdom: brexit, scexit, and irexit

[solarbird]

I was up all yesterday and last night watching votes come in on Brexit, and I’m as surprised as the next supervillain, or, for that matter, the next Briton who has been googling exactly what is the EU, anyway? after the vote.

I posted a bunch on my old LJ/DW account pair, which you can read here if you want, but that’s just tracking financial reaction. I’m really thinking about just the UK, at the moment, and what happens politically now. In that, I’m assuming in this that the EU manages to stay together without the UK, which will certainly be the number one project of everyone over there for the next five years.

Scotland will treat this as an abrogation of promises made in 2014 to entice it to stay in the UK. A big one of those was continued and certain EU membership.

Scotland, of course, voted overwhelmingly – and across all of the country – to stay. Northern Ireland voted soundly to stay as well, but less overwhelmingly, and doesn’t have a recent close referendum on leaving. Both the SNP and Sinn Féin have called for new referenda on separation, and everyone’s treating the Scottish call more seriously – including, I note, the Scots.

But I’m not sure that’s the right analysis. I think it’ll come down to borders.

The biggest question in both cases comes down to free movement. Within the EU, you have free movement; border controls are not really a big issue for Europeans.

But outside the UK, there are, of course, plenty of border controls. If those controls reappear, I think Northern Ireland tells the UK to fuck off. The smart thing for Sinn Féin might be to wait ’till those border controls start showing up.

It won’t be like this, because that’s Africa and the racism is fierce.
But it’ll be controls of some sort, and this is the image to use.

And if those border controls reappearing are part of Scottish independence, I can’t but wonder if that means the Scots will stay.

Scotland and England have had free borders for a very, very long time. In the last vote, that was brought up, but you’d’ve had EU co-membership, making the issue moot. In a new vote… not so much.

So I think they might well have it backwards. Irish reunification, yes; Scottish independence, no.

And, of course, across all of it, ample chances in destabilisation. Supervillains and day-traders, be on alert, opportunity goddamn knocks.

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Comments

Off the Latest Things page

[needled_ink_1975]

The Scots have an oil problem: it's not worth what they thought it was, and it's also very expensive to extract, even more expensive to refine, so they won't separate (that oil is literally all they were banking on to help them have a separate economy, and thank goodness they got wise to the notion that that was a Very Bad Idea).

Northern Ireland has a history problem: they need the protection of the UK, because a lot of Northern Irish are regarded by Republican Irish as traitors, so the NI won't separate either, rather than risk a return of the Troubles.

And the truth is that Britain needs Britain. The EU's bad news, always has been– find one European nation that was poor when it joined the EU and is significantly better off now (or don't waste your time: they don't exist). If Britons who don't like Farage et al thought that voting Remain was somehow going to fix xenophobia and racism and (possible) fascism, then they deserve all the crap to come. If, however, they pull their thumbs out, stop the woe-is-us chatter, and work to make Britain theirs again, they'll succeed.

I had relatives in London during the Blitz. That spirit is NOT dead.

–N

Re: Off the Latest Things page

[georgevreilly]

The Republic of Ireland was dirt poor before we joined the then-EEC in 1973 and we grew steadily wealthier until the Crash of 2008, which badly fucked us. I disagree that NI nationalists regard NI unionists as "traitors". The Protestant majority in NI have felt beleaguered by the Irish Catholics for 400 years and have long maintained a British identity, while the Catholics in NI have felt shat upon. I don't foresee NI peacefully uniting with the Republic anytime soon.

Re: Off the Latest Things page

[solarbird]

The EU was the only way forward, though. At least, that anybody had been able to make work. With Britain out, once those borders start going back up, I... don't see anything but Troubles unless they can find some exemption to allow free travel at least throughout the island. Not to mention some way to continue the peace process, which is pretty EU-dependant.

Not that the EU is in any mood to cut the UK any favours at the moment.

I suppose you could have a standalone NI, also in the EU, but not part of the Republic, but that seems pretty fuckin' small. Or it could have some special zone status where it's still officially part of the UK, but somehow also in the EU even though the rest of the UK isn't.

I have no idea how that would work, but I don't see how NI makes it going alone, even within the EU. Maybe the Dominion of Northern Ireland? But so tiny. But it's bigger than Cypress and Luxembourg, I guess? So...

[arethinn]

But it's bigger than Cypress and Luxembourg

*Cyprus?

[solarbird]

Yes.

Tho' what I typed was also correct. ^_^

[arethinn]

Where's Cypress? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cypress_Island ?) or did you mean as an alternate spelling for Cyprus?

[solarbird]

Northern Ireland is bigger than the common local tree called a cypress. Also bigger than the cypress shrubs, or, for that matter, anything else in the family.

It is also larger than Cypress Island, though I was thinking of the plants the island is named after rather than the island itself.