the same model as music: post-scarcity, part seven

[solarbird]

The Motley Fool has discovered 3D printing. Hat tip for the pointer to L. S. McGill at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, who has already been talking about this, and has important extension commentary.

You can actually read L. S. McGill’s article and get the idea about Motley Fool’s commentary, tho’ I’d recommend listening to the analysis – at least, the first chunk, before you get into the extended David Gardener sales pitch. You’ll know when you get there.

One point the Motley Fool analysis makes is that the future of manufacturing is the same model as music and film. He calls it the destruction of the economies of scale, ending the advantages of factories, and moving manufacturing per se to the end user. He even talks about Star Trek‘s replicators.

Giving him the benefit of the doubt on “23rd century”: I presume food replicators

He further gets that there’ll be “legitimate” download sites for designs, ala iTunes, and alternate sites, such as Pirate Bay.

It kind of astounds me that the same analyst who can get that right, and make that parallel, is not actually able to take a look at what’s actually happening in those comparison businesses.

In particular, how we’re all scrambling to find viable business models that have nothing to do with recordings, and how to build a new recording model that actually pays something to artists, because there’s an entire generation that sees no value in paying for music. (To wit, parts one, two, three, four, five, and six. Parts one and two both talk about the disregard for purchasing music, the rest start to talk about new approaches.)

Regardless, though, it’s about trying to find a way to make a post-scarcity model work. But that seems invisible to this guy. Don’t get me wrong: I’m for this future. A post-scarcity model in manufacturing? Sign me the fuck up. But there are huge ramifications, and this guy doesn’t understand – or at least doesn’t talk about – the fallout.

It won’t be going for coffee.

The good news for us in creative industries is that music, art, maybe movies, certainly performance – all these have alternate paths, many of which we’ve talked about in parts three through six. Bryan Kim at Hipset also recently posted an article on crowd patronage, expanding on one particular method I discussed in part three.

But I think manufacturing will have an even harder time with this than musicians and artists. Product designers may not, but that’s going to be a much smaller chunk of economic input and activity, compared to the mass-manufacturing stage; we’ve seen that in the rust belt. Replication of physical product was never the high cost point of music – but he doesn’t seem to understand how problematic that makes his comparison.

What happens to all those people when factory jobs are mostly just gone? What happens with all the money they don’t make anymore?

The post-scarcity environment won’t look anything like our current economy. Just ask some of those musicians you’re referencing – and that’s the upside, for producers. Ask the American “rust belt” for the down.

Maybe it really will look like Star Trek, eventually. I sure hope so. I even kinda think so – or, at least, that it could – and that’ll be awesome. But you’ll see your financial world torn apart, on the way there. Be ready for that – or, at least, as ready as you can be. It’s a great destination, but one hell of a bumpy road.

Mirrored from Crime and the Blog of Evil. Come listen to our music!

Comments

[angelwolfgeek]

While 3d printers are awesome,the sort of 3d printers that most people can afford (or even the high end ones), arn't really suitable for anything other than working with a single material - this is invariably plastic (though I've seen variations using plaster, and heard of methods that use metal for rapid prototyping). Its still a toy tech.

I am unlikely to have a device that will print out a coffee mug, let alone a cellphone.

On the other hand, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/nyregion/a-manufacturing-about-face-made-in-america-but-sold-in-china.html?_r=2&ref=nyregion& This could be what the future looks like for american manufacturing. High end, high quality, unique devices fusing 3d printing and other techniques.

Viable business models for 3d? Oh, yes please. Those printers are perfect for making masters for mould making.

[solarbird]

Oh, absolutely now. But the Motley Fool is basically arguing that this is 1980 for 3D printers, and he's trying to identify New Apple in the companies going now.

Ever used computers from 1980? I did. My gods, why did we bother? (Because it was super-awesome, that's why. XD) Seriously: by any modern standard, or more importantly even against computer standards in mini and mainframe machines of the time, they were toys. Honestly, toys. That's how people in business thought of them, that's how a lot of manufacturers still thought of them.

Toys. Junk. Why would you bother? Well - I think everybody knows why now.

[rfunk]

I'm right there with you on the near/mid-term effects of personal-level manufacturing. But I don't see how it might eventually look like Star Trek.
This gets into what bugs me about the Star Trek version of "Earth culture": there's no economy to speak of, yet everything Just Works. (At least until the evil aliens of the week come along and shoot everything.) I just can't see how humanity could get to such a utopia from here.
Maybe it's a failure of my imagination.

[solarbird]

Oh, I know. Next Generation tried to get into it some, but didn't really pull it off convincingly - not for me, certainly.

My thought on the matter is that humans always find reasons to consider whatever they do useful. It may take a bit of a stretch (particularly for Americans) to shift that away from material production to something else entirely, but if some sort of post-scarcity culture happens, they will find a way.

I don't know what that'll be, but it'll be something.

[oh6]

I'm sort of curious as to what advantages 3D printers have over computer-controlled milling machines, which have existed for over a generation in some form or other. I guess among other things there's less waste, and at least potentially much higher precision and accuracy, given what has already been accomplished with photolithography for microelectronics.

[solarbird]

Waste is one. The ability to additively create different layers of different materials shouldn't be underestimated, either. Printing circuits is just the start.

Some current 3D printers can also make interlocking moving parts from a single plan - no assembly required. (The prototypical example is the adjustable spanner.) They can literally fabricate parts entirely inside of other parts. You don't really get that with milling machines. You kind of can't.

(Unless there has beee some amazing change I don't know about or understand.)

[oh6]

Whoa, I hadn't really thought of the parts-inside-of-parts aspect to additive construction. Kind of freaky to imagine machinery that could not really be assembled, as such.

[solarbird]

EXACTLY. So cool. First time I saw a video demonstration of that I was all WAIT WHAT HOW!?

I mean, it could be assembled, you'd just need glues, and there are plenty of good glues. But, yeah. SOLID PIECE WHAT.