solarbird | a set of articles to read

Here, read these:

This Is The Most Bullish Moment We Can Recall Since The Financial Crisis Ended - Business Insider.

The Most Bullish Chart You've Seen in a Long Time - Minyanville and Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Then consider dataset A, along with my notes:

via Railfax:
The summer is over, so we can look forward to a lousy harvest in the Midwest and jitters about an even warmer winter. Autos are still selling, so that sends the metal complex higher. Intermodal diversion from truck? With >$4 diesel, more coming.
Other sources I read indicate drops in forward truck freight (including a big drop in Class 8 sales), so I think they're right about a bunch of their traffic coming via diversion from trucks. Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index's collapse is confirmed, and as ratio against the S&P500, has reached a new available-data low. The iron ore index is collapsing (tho' many other bubbles remain in commodities) and almost everybody's PMI indexes are in negative territory. Even China is launching another round of stimulus projects.

...vs. articles B and C:

Bernanke's Astonishingly Good Idea (direct monetisation)

The Most Important Market No One Is Watching, on things happening in the 30-year bond market.

There's a big FMOC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. There'll be announcements on Thursday. Most people are expecting QE III.

So what's with the markets? Good old euphoria? The idea that equities do not and do not have to reflect the economy anymore? Trying to get a jump ahead of the next recession and recovery back out?

All valid options. But some years ago, I said, if you want to avoid the hyperinflation that results from large-scale monetisation, grab index funds and hold on for dear life. I am not telling you right now to jump into index funds, and I am not expecting free-money rollout on Thursday; as always, I am not an investment advisor and this is not investment advice.

I'll be paying attention to see whether that door is propped open, though. Look for language describing a shift towards targeting some sort of nominal GDP instead of targeting interest rates.

And I do wonder whether that's where a lot of bets are being placed. Interesting times continue.