A local note, a reminder, and then some rambling...

[solarbird]

Microsoft stock has violated some very important technical support in the last couple of days (c.f. the "death cross" of the 50day moving average falling past the 200 day moving average) and convincingly. A technical target would be $22ish a share, or possibly $20.

...before I post the rest of this I would like to remind everyone that I am not an investment advisor, and this is not to be taken as investment advice. I am specifically out of North American and European stock markets. I have some fund investments in Asia. I am a musician, as per my most recent post about my most recent song, which you should go listen to and possibly buy! ^_^ That said...

RIMM and INTL are looking very bad in the charts. AMZN is on the precipice of falling into an extremely large gap up from many months ago which would take a third of its value right off if it decided to fill that gap. CSCO is not looking awesome either; there's a nasty, nasty flag on CSCO that says "oh hi $17/share."

Also, I'm told that you're seeing a lot of rotation in the markets right now, as people hopping out of stocks losing momentum into stocks which still have momentum up. AAPL has been one of these rotate-in stock beneficiaries. I saw a lot of this in 2006-2007 going into the market top; it's the kind of behaviour that indicates chasing the end of a run-up.

I've have been watching the 50/20 week moving averages for you; this is a very, very old market indicator which gets you into bull markets a little late and out of bear markets a little late but has never screwed you, ever. It indicated the recent rise of the last several months in the indices, and I noted that at the time even as I decided not to buy in. If you did, you've made a bunch of money. It has not yet reversed on this week's fall. However, it is getting close. Relatedly, there is also not yet a 50day/200day cross in the major markets (almost as reliable, and faster), but there have been 50 day/100 day crosses (yellow alert!), and the 50day/200day crosses are in range. If you are in the markets, I suggest you pay attention.

After last week we should see a pop up early next week, maybe pretty substantial. Me, I'm gonna go busk at Lake Forest Park on Sunday, weather permitting, and spend a lot of time practicing for the July 4th show. I've been doing a lot of recording studio work lately and while that's awesome, it's a totally different mindset and skillset and it's time to shift back gears. Have fun this weekend, and good luck on Monday.

eta: Thanks for the heads up on some of these individual stocks from Karl Denninger's weekly roundup. I don't track many individual stocks but he had a rundown on a lot of the tech sector this week.

Comments

[silussa.livejournal.com]

The $64 question, which is amusing to consider, is are we seeing the dying gasp of a bull market, a correction to a bull market....or the end of a correction in a bear market?

[solarbird]

The Cramers are saying it's a correction in a new bull. I am seeing a lot of non-bull behaviour. My suspicion is that we're seeing the end of a bear market correction, mostly because this sort of erratic market is not what you see in an ongoing bull, not even in a bull correction. But there are so many non-market forces in effect here that previous comparisons are problematic.

[discogravy.livejournal.com]

where/how do you get these numbers? i would be curious to do lookups on a few other companies..

[solarbird]

You can do this on any decent financials charting site, including free ones like Marketwatch. INO's tools aren't horrible. But I should edit this; I got a couple of these from Karl Denninger's roundup. I'm not watching many individual stocks right now, except a few like AAPL, for momentum-tracking purposes.

[wrog]

Microsoft stock has violated some very important technical support in the last couple of days (c.f. the "death cross" of the 50day moving average falling past the 200 day moving average) and convincingly. A technical target would be $22ish a share, or possibly $20.

So, wait, it was $24.96 at the last split in 2003. And basically no movement at all in the in the seven years since? (yes I stopped following it after I sold my last batch). yow.

[solarbird]

And that 2003 split was inexplicable to me, frankly. But, well, yeah.