FDIC Friday and others
Oct. 30th, 2009 11:19 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
solarbirdGood evening. Nine banks were taken over by the FDIC today, as well as one credit union (Second Baptist Church Credit Union) by the NCUA. Calculate Risk has updated their unofficial list of Problem Banks, which has grown to 500.
In other bank news, Reports say Citibank will write down US$10B in the 4th quarter. Citibank denies the story.
Harper's Magazine has a good story on the failure of derivatives reform in Congress; you should read it, it's really sad. Naked Capitalism calls it "Bank-Favoring Censorship by Congress," and that's fair.
In real estate lending news, Mortgage delinquencies keep soaring. These numbers are quite bad. OptionARM delinquencies (30-day) in particular are up to almost 50%. Karl notes that these loans were never intended to be paid back; "These loans were... sold as a means to "buy" a home, but the lenders knew full well that this could never, ever happen given the structure of the note," which typically has payments more than doubling once the reset hit.
Over in bonds, we have a couple of items. Hedgie has this report by welling@weeden on the municipal bond market, outlining an impending collapse in the muni bond market. (If that doc view isn't working for you, try this one.) Welling@weeden are predicting a series of municipal bankruptcies triggered in nontrivial part by plummeting tax receipts, pension fund failures, triggered, in turn, by derivative and other bond market implosions, and so on.
Minyanville's Ron Coby is doing something I've never seen before: telling readers to GTFO of the bond market, all of it, right now. Meanwhile, David Waggoner's Wednesday call of Thursday as a multi-year stock 'top' looks kind of shiny today, but one day means nothing.
Here's an update of that predicted vs. actual unemployment chart. Keep this thing in mind whenever thinking about forward projections. Meanwhile, Ye Olde Newe Yorke Times has this article on how the job market is hammering salaries of existing employees.
Here's an article with a list of major Chinese energy purchases over the last year. It links to several other original-source articles for details, so it's at least a little bit of an overview.
Looking back a couple of days - things I didn't post before - Mish has more commentary on the GDP report from Thursday. He also sees it as mostly negative under the hood. Dr. Roubini at RGE Monitor, by contrast, sees good things in it, but he also takes the builder numbers at face value. He also notes that the consensus figures going onto the report were lower than I had seen, at 3.2% annualised, so it is a beat. (My consensus numbers were past date.)
eta: However, new data is in today on EU unemployment and lending, and the numbers are all bad. Unemployment is up to 9.7%, and bank lending has almost stalled out. Mish also does a Friday night wrap-up of accelerated Black Friday marketing - starting now. Sears, for example, plans to have Black Friday every Friday through Thanksgiving. This smells more like something engineered to create buyer fatigue than buyer excitement, tho' that's obviously not the intent.
Enjoy the weekend, Samhain, and Halloween, and good luck with the winter half of the year.
In other bank news, Reports say Citibank will write down US$10B in the 4th quarter. Citibank denies the story.
Harper's Magazine has a good story on the failure of derivatives reform in Congress; you should read it, it's really sad. Naked Capitalism calls it "Bank-Favoring Censorship by Congress," and that's fair.
In real estate lending news, Mortgage delinquencies keep soaring. These numbers are quite bad. OptionARM delinquencies (30-day) in particular are up to almost 50%. Karl notes that these loans were never intended to be paid back; "These loans were... sold as a means to "buy" a home, but the lenders knew full well that this could never, ever happen given the structure of the note," which typically has payments more than doubling once the reset hit.
Over in bonds, we have a couple of items. Hedgie has this report by welling@weeden on the municipal bond market, outlining an impending collapse in the muni bond market. (If that doc view isn't working for you, try this one.) Welling@weeden are predicting a series of municipal bankruptcies triggered in nontrivial part by plummeting tax receipts, pension fund failures, triggered, in turn, by derivative and other bond market implosions, and so on.
Minyanville's Ron Coby is doing something I've never seen before: telling readers to GTFO of the bond market, all of it, right now. Meanwhile, David Waggoner's Wednesday call of Thursday as a multi-year stock 'top' looks kind of shiny today, but one day means nothing.
Here's an update of that predicted vs. actual unemployment chart. Keep this thing in mind whenever thinking about forward projections. Meanwhile, Ye Olde Newe Yorke Times has this article on how the job market is hammering salaries of existing employees.
Here's an article with a list of major Chinese energy purchases over the last year. It links to several other original-source articles for details, so it's at least a little bit of an overview.
Looking back a couple of days - things I didn't post before - Mish has more commentary on the GDP report from Thursday. He also sees it as mostly negative under the hood. Dr. Roubini at RGE Monitor, by contrast, sees good things in it, but he also takes the builder numbers at face value. He also notes that the consensus figures going onto the report were lower than I had seen, at 3.2% annualised, so it is a beat. (My consensus numbers were past date.)
eta: However, new data is in today on EU unemployment and lending, and the numbers are all bad. Unemployment is up to 9.7%, and bank lending has almost stalled out. Mish also does a Friday night wrap-up of accelerated Black Friday marketing - starting now. Sears, for example, plans to have Black Friday every Friday through Thanksgiving. This smells more like something engineered to create buyer fatigue than buyer excitement, tho' that's obviously not the intent.
Enjoy the weekend, Samhain, and Halloween, and good luck with the winter half of the year.
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Sears
Date: 2009-10-31 07:01 am (UTC)Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't around the following Christmas.
Re: Sears
Date: 2009-10-31 07:18 am (UTC)Re: Sears
Date: 2009-10-31 07:28 am (UTC)Hey, if the Feds keep taking over banks, won't we come to the point of just nationalizing them?
no subject
Date: 2009-10-31 04:47 pm (UTC)Your inclusion of EU unemployment numbers got me thinking about the Canadian counterpart. Here in BC the local media has been reporting pretty much static employment rates, but I've been noticing more and more empty stores for sale... there's a good deal of temporary employment to be had through Olympics-related pork, but that well is going to run dry early next year.
no subject
Date: 2009-10-31 04:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2009-10-31 10:04 pm (UTC)"Writing down losses" is something that still happens? Why would Citi do that voluntarily?