solarbird | (Reply)

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The results were not within margin of error. They also disagreed with exit polling, as I heard it reported at the time. The results require that essentially all of the large number of undecided voters voted for Senator Clinton, and that Clinton voters were less likely to respond to pollsters than Obama voters. That's possible. It does not help that the same theories were floated by the GOP in Florida in 2000, and those theories, on later study, turned out to be completely false, but it's possible.

any fraudulent Diebold counting conspiracy
It is also possible that something else is going on, either with or without fraud. And election fraud long predates electronic counting, in any system.

A statistical analysis is only as good as the underlying data
The underlying data is public; the demographic information is public. A variety of people have been going over that data; more people are going over it as I type. We'll see what happens.

speculation about voting fraud is not an honest question, it's groundless conspiracy theory. In the absence of evidence--not half-assed statistical analysis--the grander claims of voting fraud are dangerously close to libel.
Why was this not true, then, in 2000 and 2004? Why was it reasonable to see smaller statistical indications of problems in those elections and want to investigate, but not reasonable to do that here? Why is Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 sensible public oversight and outrage and this "a swiftboating of Clinton by her rivals"?

Is my desire to see a similar analysis of the strange Romney numbers also "a swiftboating of Romney by his rivals?"

For the record, I plan to have very little if anything to do with either party's nominations process. The candidate to whom I donated and who I planned to support in our caucuses pulled 1% in Iowa and dropped out of the race. The other candidate I have considered supporting continues to poll 1% and is barely acknowledged as running at all. I will consider this again once our caucus date approaches, but right now, my plan is to stay home and see who the parties nominate. Arguably, as I'm not a Democrat or a Republican, it's really none of my business anyway. But if something looks funny, I'm still likely to look at it and go, "Hey - that looks funny. What the hell?"