Lake Forest Park, I have _missed you_...

Now that is what I am god damn talking about.

I had an encore. I had a goddamn encore at a busking gig. I got to the end of my one-and-only-one hour and told the small crowd that I had to stop, but thanks everybody and they went "aaaaaaaaw!" and I blinked and changed "putting my stuff away" to "getting out my bouzouki again" and said "Okay, one more. Don't tell anybody." And they went "yay!" and I went 'agh agh agh what do I play okay Goin' Up with my cool new bridge added' and grabbed for the rhythm but missed and got Lukey's instead and was already playing! and went 'agh agh agh can I fix it?' and improved a bunch of stuff trying to get back to Goin' Up but couldn't and went 'okay fine Lukey it is!' and tore 'round into the first verse of that...

And that's when I noticed the vendor across from me (on the far side of the crowd) that had spent the first two songs glaring at me with his arms crossed from behind dark sunglasses was dancing. I have kids dancing all the time; vendors, never before. It was some kind of Irish jig. And I thought, 'oh, you are shitting me' as he then hopped out into the aisle and started to try to get other vendors to dance too.

And then it was over and I wished it wasn't but thanked everybody and someone asked when I'd be back and I said "three weeks!" and they looked sad, so I added, "But I'll be in Bothell and Woodinville next weekend!" and people were happy.

Lake Forest Park I have so missed you. You guys roxx0r even if your market manager has annoying new rules about one hour shows. I don't even care anymore. That was awesome. Let's do it again.

NEW RULE: ANYTHING WITH AN ENCORE GETS A SETLIST. These aren't really in order because I don't entirely remember, but:

SETLIST Lake Forest Park 2k9/05/31:
January (mandolin)
When You Leave (mandolin)
Lukey (first time) (bouzouki)
Cascadia, How I Have Missed You (bouzouki)
Thought You Knew (mandolin)
Artifacts (You'll Never See) (mandolin)
Stars (mandolin)
Pirate Bill (bouzouki)
Outbirds (bouzouki)
Let Me Help (mandolin)
Life in the Underground (mandolin)

OMG ENCORE:
Goin' UpLukey (extended) (bouzouki)

Lake Forest Park, I have _missed you_...

Now that is what I am god damn talking about.

I had an encore. I had a goddamn encore at a busking gig. I got to the end of my one-and-only-one hour and told the small crowd that I had to stop, but thanks everybody and they went "aaaaaaaaw!" and I blinked and changed "putting my stuff away" to "getting out my bouzouki again" and said "Okay, one more. Don't tell anybody." And they went "yay!" and I went 'agh agh agh what do I play okay Goin' Up with my cool new bridge added' and grabbed for the rhythm but missed and got Lukey's instead and was already playing! and went 'agh agh agh can I fix it?' and improved a bunch of stuff trying to get back to Goin' Up but couldn't and went 'okay fine Lukey it is!' and tore 'round into the first verse of that...

And that's when I noticed the vendor across from me (on the far side of the crowd) that had spent the first two songs glaring at me with his arms crossed from behind dark sunglasses was dancing. I have kids dancing all the time; vendors, never before. It was some kind of Irish jig. And I thought, 'oh, you are shitting me' as he then hopped out into the aisle and started to try to get other vendors to dance too.

And then it was over and I wished it wasn't but thanked everybody and someone asked when I'd be back and I said "three weeks!" and they looked sad, so I added, "But I'll be in Bothell and Woodinville next weekend!" and people were happy.

Lake Forest Park I have so missed you. You guys roxx0r even if your market manager has annoying new rules about one hour shows. I don't even care anymore. That was awesome. Let's do it again.

NEW RULE: ANYTHING WITH AN ENCORE GETS A SETLIST. These aren't really in order because I don't entirely remember, but:

SETLIST Lake Forest Park 2k9/05/31:
January (mandolin)
When You Leave (mandolin)
Lukey (first time) (bouzouki)
Cascadia, How I Have Missed You (bouzouki)
Thought You Knew (mandolin)
Artifacts (You'll Never See) (mandolin)
Stars (mandolin)
Pirate Bill (bouzouki)
Outbirds (bouzouki)
Let Me Help (mandolin)
Life in the Underground (mandolin)

OMG ENCORE:
Goin' UpLukey (extended) (bouzouki)

Late Friday action in equities

This isn't a real entry, but I was wondering wtf was up with Friday's close in the equities markets - that was a gigantic spike out of nowhere, and confusing to everyone. Karl Denninger has a theory; "Someone was forcibly liquidated out of a short position - a fairly big one. 1,000 S&P 'big' contracts has a maintenance margin requirement of $22,500,000 - that's not a small position, and each point, as noted, has a $250,000 move associated with it. Who was it and why?" He outlines his theory as to that.

weekend update

You really need to read Mish Shedlock's summary of T2 Partner's presentation on the housing situation. In particular, you need to understand that while subprime is mostly over, US$2.4T in Alt-A mortgages and $750B in OptionARMs were written, and OptionARMs are already failing at a 32% rate.

You also need to read his post about Fitch's analysis showing that up to 75% of the Making Home Affordable mortgages will fail within six months. Notably:

Diane Pendley, managing director at Fitch, said the problem is not on that "front-end" ratio, but on the back end, which is all of the borrowers other debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.). She said that in talking with servicers, she's hearing other debt is so high that most of today's troubled borrowers cannot afford any loan payment at all, even at a very modest debt-to-income ratio. 'Just getting the house payment done doesn't mean their lifestyle is sustainable,' she said.

"Another problem is that with home prices continuing to fall, more and more borrowers, who are essentially just renting their mortgages now because they will never see any home equity, are walking away. Even if the mortgage payment is low, the property taxes and home maintenance costs are padding that payment, and without an upside to the investment, there's simply no reason to pay. Suffice it to say, the foreclosure crisis, on the high and low ends, is not getting any better."

Here's the GM Bankruptcy Weekend Roundup: First, The Wall Street Journal's article. The Nikkei is up sharply on GM's bankruptcy assumption. The Federal government is going to own 60% of GM as of tomorrow - almost certainly - and Karl at Market Ticker thinks the primary bankruptcy is priced in, but that the supplier fallout will be extremely painful.

A substantial chunk of Chrysler LLC may be out of bankruptcy as soon as Monday, with another wind-down chunk being still in court for some time. The new company will be mostly owned by the United Auto Workers union's health-care trust, with a minority stake being held by Fiat, the US government, and the Canadian government.

Mix-and-match: Marketwatch's economist survey expects another 500,000 job losses in May. Official numbers won't be out until Friday. The IEA says electricity use will decline worldwide for the first time since 1945. The Fed is apparently confused by the yield-curve steepening in the US Treasuries market. I know some Austrian economists who would have a few words on that topic.

All for now. Good luck on Monday!