okay, so, that was neat

Good morning. Mr. Obama faces a series of major challenges starting today, and I wish him the best of luck.

Stocks fell dramatically yesterday, with the Dow down 332 (4%), the S&P 500 down 45 (5.3%), the NASDAQ down 88 and a half (5.8%), and the Canadian TSX down sharply as well. Part of that was due to the previously-described action in the UK on Monday; part of it was reaction to terrible earnings reports from several banks, including State Street. (Citigroup amused no one with its token penny dividend.)

I hate, hate, hate linking to a spreadsheet, but this report from Standard and Poor's shows revised P/E ratios based on announced and more-like forward earnings. Picroreview: stocks still aren't cheap.

Futures are pointing to a small rebound on Wednesday; we'll see. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down, but not as badly as the Dow; Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down currently 3.4%. The dollar index continues to ride fairly high at over 86 even as the US dollar loses strength against the Yen, thanks to weakness in the Euro and Pound Sterling. Oil was up sharply today and honestly I can't tell you why; it's something I should investigate. (Possibly related to reports that Kyrgyzstan plans to order the US airbase there closed almost immediately? I don't know.) There is this New York Times article on oil stockpiling in supertankers.

Two bits of good news: the TED spread fell below 1.00 for the first time in months, so if you can get lending, prices are starting to leave insanityland and move towards normality. IBM profits beat expectations, that's beat expectations, a term you're not going to see very often this quarter, but did so on lower total sales. (Also, not to sour the good news, but note this pickup on tickerforum about their pension situation - they're having to deal with a lot of pension-fund issues created by knowingly over-optimistic investment revenue projections. More data here.)

Treasuries watch: an investment manager for South Korea's pension fund says it's time to GTFO of US Treasuries. Brad Setser is obviously thinking about this a whole lot, and says to worry less about Chinese sales of US treasuries and more about collapse in Chinese demand for imported goods.

Currency traders are strongly recommending countries with trade surpluses, notably Japan, Switzerland, and Norway. (And not Australia, which is seeking more ways to throw money at banks.) Seeking Alpha is talking about the velocity of money (see my previous commentary on that - I'm amused, they're using some of the same charts I do.)

All for now, I'm afraid. Good luck.

don't blink

Well, somebody certainly unloaded a lot of US dollars for Yen today - that chart's showing a 3.3%ish slide over a 70-minute period. I wonder who that was.

oh who knows

So King County voters, in their infinite wisdom, voted to make the Director of Elections an elected position. Leaving aside the whole WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU of that idea, I'm annoyed at having to vote for this position at all, so can somebody tell me which of these cranks is least likely to be a disaster? Thanks.

eta: it is very tempting to vote LIZARD PEOPLE. But there are comments.