solarbird: (molly-thats-not-good-green)
[personal profile] solarbird
Two charts for your purusal:


Dow Jones Industrial Average


Euro/USD exchange rate


If I'm doing my time conversions right, and I'm pretty sure I am (the forex is reported in GMT; the DJIA in Eastern Daylight; eastern daylight time + 0400 = GMT, right?) these two rectangles are the same hours. Those curves are damn near identical. And you can make an argument that the few hours before that are pretty similar too, but with a wider swing. That's neat.

eta: Here, I mashed 'em for you!

Date: 2010-05-11 10:46 pm (UTC)
maellenkleth: (star-and-leaf)
From: [personal profile] maellenkleth
Hmm, on first glance, that suggests to me some pretty serious programmed trading going on. I am not sure that humans could track so closely.

Date: 2010-05-12 12:22 am (UTC)
ext_3294: Tux (Default)
From: [identity profile] technoshaman.livejournal.com
Test run number two.

Date: 2010-05-12 12:33 am (UTC)
maellenkleth: (Columbia-icon)
From: [personal profile] maellenkleth
We ran that particular idea past our friend the consulting economist, and were told 'maybe, but more likely that somebody is trying to wring every last possible dollar out of the system for their own enrichment'. [Paraphrasing as usual, since direct quotes are verboten under our arrangement].

Careful precautions are warranted, clearly.

Date: 2010-05-12 12:35 am (UTC)
ext_3294: Tux (Default)
From: [identity profile] technoshaman.livejournal.com
So noted. Gonna go make said precautions, among other things.

Date: 2010-05-12 01:26 am (UTC)
maellenkleth: (Default)
From: [personal profile] maellenkleth
Good. Nothing extreme, but everything careful. I am pleased to know that common sense prevails. ^_^

Date: 2010-05-12 03:45 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] darksumomo.livejournal.com
If the charts were in days, weeks, or months, instead of hours, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. Ever between the previous bottom in the Dow and other indices in August 2002 and the peak of the market in late 2007, the real value of the Dow has been nearly constant. As the value of the dollar went down, whether adjusted by inflation or against the Euro, the market rose to compensate, making the nominal value higher to keep the real value more or less constant. I wouldn't be surprised if that relationship took hold again, making it so that as the dollar rose against the Euro, the stock market fell to keep the real value constant.

However, that the two tracked so closely over a span of a few hours makes it look like people are taking their money out of both and putting it in dollars. It's amazing to watch the sloshing around of investment money to see which assets it inflates.

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