The thing about the consumer spending numbers that is most suspicious is the conflict between tax revenues and overall sales. The other data can be reconciled with an upturn in domestic consumption, particularly if it's concentrated among only a portion of the population--a particularly wealthy portion--that didn't really need to cut back spending but did just to be safe. But any increase in consumption would be reflected in increased sales tax unless it was concentrated in the few states that don't have a sales tax, or in goods and services that aren't subject to sales tax. That seems highly improbable particularly since consumption is up across many categories of goods and services.