ext_255616 ([identity profile] llachglin.livejournal.com) wrote in [personal profile] solarbird 2009-05-11 11:26 pm (UTC)

That job loss graph is pretty alarming. Here's (http://flowingdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/joblossespostwarii-545x353.jpg) a similar chart with what looks like the same data from a few months ago, but with four more recessions tracked. At that point job losses were only 2.6% from peak 13 months before. Extending to the 17 month point and the current 4.2% decline, the 1948 and 1958 recessions were still more severe at this point. On the other hand, both of those recessions were already moving up from the employment bottom by 17 months. Even the optimistic projections for this recession give us several more months before unemployment bottoms out.

So, we're almost certainly going to have the worst drop in employment in relative terms since the 1930s before things get better.

On the other hand, here's some pespective (this chart's a few months behind current data, but that doesn't change things much):

Image


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