I think your charting is certainly on the right track with regards to the direction things are likely to be headed from a technical analysis POV. I usually like to go back a bit further to look for other confirming formations, but the use of parallel lines is spot on. The downside breakout looks right too.

I've put together a long-view chart of the USDX using as much data as StockCharts.com would give me: http://lizardlounge.com/cmills/USDX_23Y-HNS.gif

My view is that the near-term target is around 50 and the long-term goal is negative 5 (-5).