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this ain't close to over
That was neat, some of this went away. Lemmie try again.
This article makes it sound like the credit crisis is mostly a problem in BBB CDOs, which is to say Collateralised Debt Obligations. Here are the graphs for all classes. Note AAAs are trading at under 90c/dollar, which is to say, trading at a capital loss. That ain't right. (AA is around 65c, and it gets worse from there, bottoming out at BBB's 20c/dollar.)
Also, that "new home sales rise" report is basically just a lie, which, pleasantly, Marketwatch notes; sales are only "up" if you compare this unrevised number against last month's heavily-revised downward "revised" number. The problem with that is that this month's number will also be revised, so you are comparing apples to oranges, as it were. Comparing to the unrevised number - making the apples-to-apples comparison - you have a 3.2% drop month-to-month, aside from the 35%-odd drop from a year ago. And, of course, existing home sales weren't pleasant either.
Meanwhile, in ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?! news, over at Global Guerrilla, we have an introduction to the concept of oil production peak, with this amazing little codicil:
Other items of interest:
Fox News floats the theory that the California wildfires were caused by al Qaeda, lying about key facts to make it seem more likely; Rudi Giuliani just comes out and says that whether torture is torture depends upon who is doing it, clearly meaning that if it's the US, it's not; the new Atty. General nominee refused to testify whether he considers the torture technique known as waterboarding to be torture, so some of the Senators on the committee - none of the Republicans, but I think all the Democrats - wrote a letter, oooooooooo; Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee repeats the fundamentalist canard that "most" of the signers of the Declaration of Independence were clergy; this is a lie that has been gaining some popular-knowledge traction in that community as of late. And Bernard Lewis in the Wall Street Journal writes that we should be more like the Soviet Union in application of terror tactics, somehow managing to miss that hello, the USSR fell, you moron; accordingly, they probably weren't the "strong" ones. Stop emulating the oppressive torture-wielding failures. Christ on a fucking pogo stick.
And finally, in a momentary gasp of sanity, Senator Chris Dodd is fighting the Democratic leadership to stop a deal with the White House granting retroactive immunity to telecom industry lawbreaking in the warrantless-wiretapping cases. Since Congress won't investigate these, and the Justice Department won't either, the only avenue remaining open are the private lawsuits; retroactive immunity would shut those down. Senator Dodd has a page of people up to contact. I suggest doing so.
This article makes it sound like the credit crisis is mostly a problem in BBB CDOs, which is to say Collateralised Debt Obligations. Here are the graphs for all classes. Note AAAs are trading at under 90c/dollar, which is to say, trading at a capital loss. That ain't right. (AA is around 65c, and it gets worse from there, bottoming out at BBB's 20c/dollar.)
Also, that "new home sales rise" report is basically just a lie, which, pleasantly, Marketwatch notes; sales are only "up" if you compare this unrevised number against last month's heavily-revised downward "revised" number. The problem with that is that this month's number will also be revised, so you are comparing apples to oranges, as it were. Comparing to the unrevised number - making the apples-to-apples comparison - you have a 3.2% drop month-to-month, aside from the 35%-odd drop from a year ago. And, of course, existing home sales weren't pleasant either.
Meanwhile, in ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME?! news, over at Global Guerrilla, we have an introduction to the concept of oil production peak, with this amazing little codicil:
One of the reasons I brought up this topic is that I was surprised to find that nearly all of the top people in the CIA, NSA, DHS, DoD, etc. that I have talked to/with over the last few months didn't know anything about the topic. Hopefully, I can put this on their forward looking radar.Christ, I hope that's wrong. I mean godt dammit. [ETA: that codicil has been redacted. Good.]
Other items of interest:
Fox News floats the theory that the California wildfires were caused by al Qaeda, lying about key facts to make it seem more likely; Rudi Giuliani just comes out and says that whether torture is torture depends upon who is doing it, clearly meaning that if it's the US, it's not; the new Atty. General nominee refused to testify whether he considers the torture technique known as waterboarding to be torture, so some of the Senators on the committee - none of the Republicans, but I think all the Democrats - wrote a letter, oooooooooo; Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee repeats the fundamentalist canard that "most" of the signers of the Declaration of Independence were clergy; this is a lie that has been gaining some popular-knowledge traction in that community as of late. And Bernard Lewis in the Wall Street Journal writes that we should be more like the Soviet Union in application of terror tactics, somehow managing to miss that hello, the USSR fell, you moron; accordingly, they probably weren't the "strong" ones. Stop emulating the oppressive torture-wielding failures. Christ on a fucking pogo stick.
And finally, in a momentary gasp of sanity, Senator Chris Dodd is fighting the Democratic leadership to stop a deal with the White House granting retroactive immunity to telecom industry lawbreaking in the warrantless-wiretapping cases. Since Congress won't investigate these, and the Justice Department won't either, the only avenue remaining open are the private lawsuits; retroactive immunity would shut those down. Senator Dodd has a page of people up to contact. I suggest doing so.
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deflation yuckiness
aargh,
Angharad
safely home in Brier for the nonce
and going to have frank money talk with family tonight
Re: deflation yuckiness
of course, after the inflation blowoff, that's what you get in the cycle. some of the minyanville people have been arguing that we've been in the inflation blowoff already and deflation is next. i disagree in that i think there's a bigger blowoff triggered by the dollar implosion - that demand drop isn't enough to stop inflation if input prices rise regardless, like happens with a collapsing dollar.
then you get the deflationary rebound.
lulz Brier. I am in Lake Forest Park Town Centre borrowin' their internetz.
Re: deflation yuckiness
(Anonymous) 2007-10-27 03:20 am (UTC)(link)Brier is nice, warm, safe, toasty by fire, getting multi-cat therapy and people squish and plenty of yummy retsina -- everything that is good and proper about life and certainly illustrating the idea that family is worthwhile.
will write more anent economics late sunday night --- till then am allowing self to be fussed over. yayness in ardence. needed this. :-(
but yeah, bigger nastiness awaits --
oh by the way, steel plates in SR-522 make for sucky driving, and vinnie's thrift store was thoroughly picked-over. household does, however, agree that thriftway is worthwhile. will likely find tomorrow's dinner-rohstoff there.
axayim,
ang--
Re: deflation yuckiness
There's also some noise-reduction stuff but that's less important.
Now if we can just get the downtown rebuild started. Nang.
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YES
EVERYTHING IS CATCHING
ON FIIIIII-RRRRRRE
IS CATCHING ON
FIIIIIRE IS CATCHING ON
FI-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-ER