(apologies to solarbird for hijacking her journal for a side conversation)
College students attending out-of-state schools are not generally known for high turnout numbers, so I don't see that as being a decisive factor. Also, it seems to me that as a group college students would be more likely Obama or Edwards voters, so if anything the schedule helps Clinton. For Iowa, it comes down to ground-level operations, and it's too early to say who has the best operations. But I don't get the sense that any campaign is misspending in the way Howard Dean did in 2003-2004. If it's just a matter of money, Hillary's going to win. Edwards can rely upon his 2004 groundwork, so he's probably going to do well. I think Obama's going to have trouble out of the top three, and my hunch is that Richardson will do better there than most places. I suspect we'll quickly have a top-two primary season that includes Clinton and one anti-Clinton. How long the campaign lasts depends upon how long it takes to settle on an anti-Clinton and how formidable that candidate is going out of the first wave of states.
I have to say that Obama is not impressing me at all, and aside from his position on the war I don't see any reason for voting for him over Hillary right now. My current plan is to show up at the caucus uncommitted and see how I can most affect the balance of power in my precinct.
no subject
College students attending out-of-state schools are not generally known for high turnout numbers, so I don't see that as being a decisive factor. Also, it seems to me that as a group college students would be more likely Obama or Edwards voters, so if anything the schedule helps Clinton. For Iowa, it comes down to ground-level operations, and it's too early to say who has the best operations. But I don't get the sense that any campaign is misspending in the way Howard Dean did in 2003-2004. If it's just a matter of money, Hillary's going to win. Edwards can rely upon his 2004 groundwork, so he's probably going to do well. I think Obama's going to have trouble out of the top three, and my hunch is that Richardson will do better there than most places. I suspect we'll quickly have a top-two primary season that includes Clinton and one anti-Clinton. How long the campaign lasts depends upon how long it takes to settle on an anti-Clinton and how formidable that candidate is going out of the first wave of states.
I have to say that Obama is not impressing me at all, and aside from his position on the war I don't see any reason for voting for him over Hillary right now. My current plan is to show up at the caucus uncommitted and see how I can most affect the balance of power in my precinct.